Pigeon Post: What NYCFC Has To Do To Win The MLS Cup Final Edition
When given an inch, we'll take a mile.
It’s been a rollercoaster of a year. To the late signings of the three South American new boys, to the semi-official cohabitation of the energy drink’s stadium in Harrison, to watching one of the best teams in MLS barely make the playoffs.
We’d be remiss not to bring up that we called Taty being the best striker in MLS in May. Or that James Sands deserved to get his summer run with the USMNT. Or how the longest serving NYCFC coach might have transformed the Pigeons into a good set piece team. Or sharing that one awesome night we had with the Pineapple Professor, Dome Torrent.
With 2021 regular season attendance lower than ever before, it was hard to know where we stood. The ever constant thorn in our side that is the status of our soccer specific stadium was covered thoroughly and elegantly by the Pulitzer Prize deserving Chris Campbell. And if rumors are true, there will be over 2,500 NYCFC fans, including some Outfielders, traveling to Portland this Saturday. (Which would easily outperform NYCFC’s average regular season attendance figures.) So, we turn to the faithful to answer looming questions on the eve of the biggest game in club history. Enjoy!
-The Outfield Collective
Was [the Eastern Conference Finals] victory one week too early to introduce my boys to sports happy tears?
-Jay H, NYCFC Forums
Never.
-NYCFC Tactics
In life, we should always hold our victories in full embrace. In competition, specifically where there will only be one winner in a crowded field through elimination, the small steps and accomplishments can be ever more dramatic. My first full-blown happy tears from a competitive elimination performance were on May 21st, 2003. Ruben Studdard had finished the crescendo out of the bridge of “Flying Without Wings” and I collapsed into a blubbering mess into my blue bean bag chair. It was a victory, a Talles Magno tap-in in the 87th minute.
Ruben has, for the most part, been left to the sands of time, a footnote among his more famous colleagues like Kelly Clarkson and Carrie Underwood. However, I’ll never forget those tears of joy, and no matter the outcome of the 2021 MLS Cup final, you and your boys will have a lasting, meaningful, happy tear-filled memory for at least twenty years like mine.
-Trey Fillmore
Will [NYCFC] have to rotate some of the squad given the slow start Sunday? Gudi [Thórarinsson] probably an obvious one but what about [Tajouri-Shradi]/Medina and Morales/Acevedo?
-Ethan Zombek, Twitter
Does Ronny continue with a similar lineup or does he go with the hotter hand in Gudi?
-David Schwall, Substack
Is Ronny’s use of early subs a possible indicator of a change for the starting XI?
-Splizzington, Reddit
I’m not certain the slow start in Philadelphia is indicative of any particular issues other than the team was five days removed from going 120+ minutes in New England. And heading into the Eastern Conference Final, Maxime Chanot was quite clear that nothing needed to be changed. That said, if changes were to occur, a Gudi for Malte switch has to be most likely. Gudi has had quite an impact the last two playoff matches while Malte struggled in possession in Philadelphia.
One other potential change could be Gedion Zelalem into the defensive midfield and James Sands returning back to the right elbow back position. Portland has allowed the most progressive passes and progressive carries in 2021. Including one additional player that is seeking to make progressive passes could help exploit that. If I had to bet on if we’d see this on Saturday, I’d lean towards no, but I think it’s something that may be considered.
-Chris Campbell
Is Deila out?
-FootyLovin, NYCFC Forums
We are so tired of this discussion that we’re not answering it. We’ll share the transcript of what Trey said to Jake Beckhard on their latest Blue Balls NYCFC Podcast:
J: Is the Deila Out movement dead?
T: Apparently not, on fucking twitter and bullshit. Of course it is. Anyone with common sense would not... I... Jake, I'm so sorry to use veto power, which I so seldom do. I'm vetoing that talking point. There's no productivity that comes with giving those people the time of day.
-The Outfield Collective
We just watched RSL get crushed in Portland. Obviously NYC is a very different side from RSL. So what are NYCFC’s chances in Portland and how do they get it done?
-JCMore, NYCFCForums
Winning on the road is hard to do. It’s even harder in MLS. Even though every advanced metric points to NYCFC being the superior team on paper, the fact is that going up against Portland in Providence Park is a tall order for a normal game, much less a cup final. On top of that, Portland has been a tough opponent for NYCFC in the past.
Here’s what NYCFC has to do to lift the cup at the end of the game.
Patience is a priority. Portland thrives in transition moments, and with Yimmi and Diego Chara they are ruthless and effective at turning a minor mistake into a goal. NYCFC has to play like the away team. They have to pick their spots to push Gray or Thor/Malte up the wings, and make sure to cover behind. On top of that, the press needs to be sensible. Portland picked apart RSL’s press and while RSL is no NYCFC, the potential remains that Portland can create chances from breaking lines and forcing NYCFC to defend on the move.
The team has to play to its potential in creating chances from strong positions. For the last three years, the defining characteristic of NYCFC at their worst has been how they underperform value added in terms of actual shots created. Portland will force NYC to make tough passes and smart, technically sound possession play will be important to maintaining possession in the final third and creating shooting opportunities. High quality shots are more important than a high volume of shots.
Finally, NYCFCs stars need to show up. Taty is the best striker in MLS, and by default the best player the Portland back line has faced in the playoffs. If he can constantly cause discomfort by pressing hard and working space, he has the ability to unsettle the entire Portland side. If he gets thrown off by physical play or struggles to control his emotions, it could be a disaster. Maxi will need to be his best self, ever present in possession and linking up play throughout the final third. He struggled towards the end of the Philadelphia game with his passing, though in the end it worked out. He will need to be sharper against Portland. Finally, Santi Rodriguez might be the NYCFC MVP for the playoffs so far. His ability to cause havoc on the right side of the defense changes the way Portland can defend. If all three play their best, there’s not much Portland can do to stop them.
So what are the chances? 538 says an NYCFC victory is likely by a fair margin - 57% to 43%. My model predicts a narrow advantage in a low scoring matchup. From start to finish expect a tense, physical battle decided by a few key moments.
-Paul Harvey
That Cosmos game vs Gio Savarese was my first playoff game ever. Are the odds against us again?
-N Jay, Twitter
What is it about Gio Savarese and what are we going to do to break this curse on Saturday?
-Ethan Mor, Twitter
Gio Savarese has beaten NYCFC each of the five times he has faced them, three of which were elimination games. Savarese has been haunting the Pigeons since 2015, knocking them out of the US Open Cup in back-to-back years as the head coach of the Cosmos. Many thought those demons exorcized when he left New York for Portland in 2018 but lo and behold, there was Savarese again to crush our dreams for a prestigious MLS Is Back trophy.
The constant struggles led many to believe that there really was a curse, and they would be right. What is less known, is that NYCFC has vanquished this curse. Here’s the full story.
It all started when Savarese developed an unexplained hatred for the Bronx dating back to his college days playing for LIU Brooklyn in the early 90s that hardened across two seasons with the Long Island Rough Riders. His resentment built over decades until MLS awarded that very same borough he disliked so much its own expansion team in 2015. Savarese, then coach of the Cosmos, could not tolerate even the thought of losing a single game to a team that called the Bronx home. He made a deal with the soccer gods. In return for a guarantee of victory any time he coached against NYCFC, Savarese sacrificed the entire New York Cosmos franchise, allowing the gods to feed on its resources to satisfy their vast hunger.
This arrangement worked well for Savarese for a bit, evidenced by the aforementioned consecutive heartbreaks handed to NYCFC by the Cosmos. But his braggadociousness was his downfall, letting slip the existence of the curse in the midst of trash talk after Daniel Szetela’s late-game-winning goal in 2016. NYCFC knew this curse could not be allowed to live on. Savarese had already been a thorn in their side twice in as many seasons and his name had come in MLS head coaching searches. It was only a matter of time before the curse followed them to the top tier.
So NYCFC approached the soccer gods themselves to bargain - what would be the price to neutralize the curse. The price requested was high, too high. NYCFC couldn’t obviously match Savarese’s offer of an entire franchise, but the only other asset the gods deemed equivalent was the career of the prodigal son.
Kwadwo Poku was the bounty they wanted, take it or leave it.
The answer from NYCFC was a definitive no, Poku was destined for the MLS Mount Rushmore. The gods accepted the rejection but were clear that this offer, or any like it, would not be available again. Word of the negotiation had spread throughout the team and the bargaining chip himself became aware of what was on the line. Always the consummate teammate, Poku knew the risk to the club was too great. Two trophy pursuits had already been smothered by this curse despite Poku’s herculean efforts in both losses. For all of his on-field talent, he realized it was not enough to overcome the will of the soccer gods.
So on June 17, 2016, one day after the US Open Cup loss to the Cosmos, Kwadwo Poku sacrificed himself to the gods. They would mine him for his abilities until he was a shell of the legend we had known. In return, Savarese’s invincibility against the Bronx-based team ended. Both Poku and the team hoped the gods would be merciful and delay their feast until he had more time in the spotlight. But these are not benevolent gods. That very same day, they extracted his skill just like the Monstars did in Space Jam. A 9-minute substitute appearance the following day was all that was needed to confirm the heartbreak.
To the public, Poku’s transfer to Miami FC two weeks later was inexplicable. The dream of Poku’s ascent to become the greatest player in MLS was over. But NYCFC launched him into the obscurity of lower league soccer in order to preserve his image in the fans’ hearts and minds. We have been sheltered from the sadness of seeing him play sapped of all his grace and will always remember him as a marauder.
It remains true that Savarese has gotten the best of NYCFC three consecutive times since the curse was neutralized, yet that is mere coincidence. In fact, those losses hid the existence of Poku’s counter-bargain from the Portland coach and he may prepare with negligence thinking his guarantee of victory lives on. The winless streak has even given the gods plausible deniability to continue stripping the Cosmos for parts more than five years since the curse ended. The cacophony of realizations Savarese would experience if defeated in the MLS Cup Final would be traumatic, and we should all cherish that reaction shot should it come to be.
As for Poku, he regularly considers the alternative path his life would have taken if Savarese had never made his deal with the devil. We can only imagine how glorious it would have been. But when he thinks about his decision, there is no regret because he did it for this exact moment. NYCFC now stands a fighting chance against Savarese, and Poku is the reason why. So there is no need to worry about a curse, but we should have revenge on the mind. Gio Savarese owes us a great debt, he is responsible for our beloved being taken from us. That bill comes due on Saturday.
1This story has been edited for length.
-Kevin Nelson
Leave aside the eye test and describe Medina's consistent inclusion as part of the starting XI focusing exclusively on his positive impact.
-JayH, NYCFC Forums
There’s no denying that when Jesus Medina has the ball, and all eyes are on him, he can be a little… disappointing. He’s loose in possession and doesn’t play with the same verve or vision that Maxi Moralez or his left wing partner Santi Rodriguez do. And yet, despite the attacking depth built up on the roster, Medina starts game after game. Why?
Medina’s contributions to this team are primarily off the ball. For a possession team like NYC, that means he sometimes sticks out like a sore thumb. Despite that, he is vital to the team. His major contributions are in the defensive area.
First, he presses intensely through the attacking and middle thirds. It is very difficult for teams to advance along his wing because he constantly forces the issue. It’s something you don’t always notice, but its absence is alarming. Watch Isi fail to challenge his man in the middle third against Philadelphia:
In possession, Medina is a vital outlet for NYCFC’s possession. He’s 10th in MLS for receiving G+ per 96 minutes, behind only Taty on NYCs roster. His role is to provide width as NYC attacks down the left flank. Maxi or the central midfielders can switch the field quickly and find Medina in dangerous positions, where a good deal of NYC’s goals come from.
Finally, he’s a set piece threat from corners. He has good technique and is a reliable option to provide service from the right. For a team that generates so much value from set pieces, having someone who can consistently put the ball where it needs to be is essential. All these things combine to make him a vital part of one of the best teams in the league.
-Paul Harvey
Does an MLS Cup victory change the mothership's output and/or strategy on roster moves with more eyes on the club?
-JayH, NYCFCForums
If anything I think a MLS Cup victory leads to CFG doubling down on their roster-building strategy. NYCFC has focused its efforts in deriving value from it’s TAM-level acquisitions. If NYCFC wins a trophy, it's all more proof that spending resources on a well-rounded and deep roster is more important than spending money on top-heavy big name DPs.
With that being said, it will be very nice if NYCFC comes into the 2022 season with all three DP spots filled by players who are not named Jesús Medina as well as all of the new U22 spots filled with talent. However, with the front office’s previous track record, that is probably wishful thinking.
-Justin Egan
What do you believe is the best tactical approach vs Portland? Do you believe we showed the appropriate ratio of Bing to Bong in our win at Philly?
-LawyeredToDeath, Reddit
The latest research indicates you’re going to want two parts Bing to one part Bong in even game states. That target ratio will either increase to 3:1 or decrease to 3:2 whether a team is trailing or leading, respectively. NYCFC was light on the Bing in the first half against Philadelphia but very heavy with it in the second so across 90 minutes, they achieved the appropriate ratio.
Moving the focus to Portland, NYCFC are about to face a team who just isn’t as good at soccer as them, but they also retain the lowest possession (44.9%) in MLS. This should allow the Pigeons to assert their dominance, a sentiment often measured by Bing Bong ratio. The question becomes the best way for them to do so. Portland is very much a counter attacking team but they’re only able to meet half of the requirements to be a good one. The Timbers are more than capable of attacking in transition, ranking as the 5th best offense in MLS according to NPxG, but are woeful at the defending part of the equation. Only San Jose and FC Cincinnati have allowed more NPxG than Savarese’s team and they actually have the worst home defense in MLS (1.47 NPxGA).
Nevertheless, Portland has managed to compile the 3rd-most points and 4th-best goal differential at Providence Park. A bottom-ten NPxGD there suggests that is more fool’s gold than it is a testament to the crowd’s ability to hold some mystical power over home games. NYCFC shouldn’t take the Timbers lightly despite the favorable matchup on paper and Deila will certainly be wary of a dangerous counterattack. Containing Portland in transition is priority number one and NYCFC can look to patiently possess while maintaining good position to thwart counters if and when the ball is lost, a similar strategy to the one used against Philadelphia.
Staying in position to defend in transition may require one of NYCFC’s fullbacks staying back and that would likely be Tayvon Gray. Portland is 4th in the league with a +2.33 non-interrupting g+ differential above average on the attacking left side but that number drops all the way to -2.13 on right (22nd). That’s due in part to Sebastian Blanco, who leads the team in fast break xG+xA per 96, preferring to operate on that side but the Argentine winger's health status is uncertain for Saturday.
Even is Blanco isn’t fit to play/start, that flank needs to be cautioned all the same with Claudio Bravo a formidable presence after leading all fullbacks in touch percentage this season. Deila may opt to push Gray forward as a method of pinning Bravo back but expect James Sands to fade into right back space in possession if that’s the case. Once defending the counter is addressed, NYCFC can look to circulate possession and maintain their typical movement patterns. Portland’s defense has a habit of breaking down all on its own so Deila can patiently wait for those opportunities to present themselves.
-Kevin Nelson
Like any Timb wearing New Yorker will tell you, the proper ratio of Bing to Bong is critical for high quality performance. Maintaining the proper level of brashness and respect is hard to find in any hyper competitive environment, yet alone in a MLS Cup Final. So, I look to what our Captain Sean Johnson said this week, “I don’t think this team considers ourselves underdogs. I don't think [we] ever have.”
-NYCFC Tactics
Does it seem to you that: a) Taty is flopping less than he used to; and b) Taty's surge in goal scoring started around the time he began flopping less?
-Sabo, NYCFC Forums
No.
-NYCFC Tactics
I’d point out that while Taty still flops and fouls more than anyone in the league, he’s become more in control of his emotions and play, making him much harder to take out of games mentally. It used to be that if he had a rough go he’d disappear entirely. Still, Taty’s edge is a huge part of his game. He’s the only player I’ve ever heard of that led a league in scoring and fouling.
-Paul Harvey
With the great job Ronny Deila’s done getting NYCFC to MLS Cup, do you see City locking him up long-term with a new deal, to prevent him being poached by Europe?
-Corey Clayton, Twitter
Ronny Deila would definitely deserve a new deal if NYCFC wins the MLS Cup. I just don’t know how much the fans have to worry about a team from Europe poaching Ronny. There’s a track record of coaches jumping at offers across the pond, but their desirability isn’t based on results.
Winning in MLS doesn’t really seem to be a really big stepping stone if you are a manager that didn’t already have a reputation in European circles. Or we would have seen the likes of Caleb Porter and Brian Schmetzer making the jump.
Ronny wasn’t exactly setting Norwegian Eliteserien ablaze when CFG signed him in 2020. Unlike Patrick Vieira or Dome Torrent, the former Celtic man didn’t have the pedigree of one the games greatest all-time players or being Pep Guardiola’s former right-hand man.
Nonetheless, don’t count out CFG using the NYCFC job for their own machinations like we saw with Vieira or Giovanni van Bronckhorst.
-Justin Egan
If the season ends with MLS Cup victory, do you think Maxi should leave with essentially legend status, ending on the highest possible note he can? Or do you think he should extend one more year, which could possibly end with a Maxi decline and potentially a worse ending to the season than this year?
-Shwafta, NYCFC Forums
Before we get to what the club should do with Maxi, let’s start by saying regardless of what happens on Saturday, Maxi has already achieved legend status with NYCFC. That status would undoubtedly grow if this team wins the franchise’s first MLS Cup, but Maxi would rank in the top three in essentially every meaningful category if he walks out the door right now.
Maxi just racked up 2,600+ minutes this season in the face of durability concerns and had his best passing season per g+ above average. That being said, Maxi will start next season at the age of 35 and NYCFC need to consider the player he’ll be instead of the one he’s been.
Allocating a DP spot to a player somewhere on the backside of his career would be a risky move for the club, despite his sustained greatness. Nevertheless, NYCFC should do everything they can to bring him back on a TAM-level deal because they are still reliant on his creative abilities. Doing so would kick the can down the road on finding his full-time replacement and frees up a DP spot to bring in high level talent at the center forward position, to give a totally random example that isn’t referencing a very probable future need.
If Maxi calls their bluff and demands DP money, then NYCFC are in a tough spot. It’s likely the team moves on if it’s confident either Santi Rodriguez can step into his creative fulcrum role or that they can find equivalent production on the open market. That’s easier said than done though. Maxi has contributed the 20th-most non-interrupting g+ to a single franchise of any player throughout ASA’s records, dating back to 2013. That production is not easy to replicate. Long story short - offer a TAM deal and cross your fingers. If he says no, pick your poison and then cross your fingers again.
-Kevin Nelson
Does an MLS Cup victory affect the stadium search in any respect?
-JayH, NYCFC Forums
While an MLS Cup victory can’t be anything but a positive towards stadium progress, I’m not sure it really moves the needle in a material manner. Added local interest in the club could only be a positive for further demonstrating the demand for a soccer specific stadium, but unfortunately an MLS Cup doesn’t quite solve any parking space issues.
-Chris Campbell
What would an MLS Cup victory do for the much-maligned reputation of pigeons?
-JayH, NYCFC Forums
Pigeons somehow seem to still get a bad rap and I’m not convinced that an MLS Cup victory will do much to change people’s minds. However, I have heard from sources (unconfirmed) that if NYCFC were to win the MLS Cup Final, that the Cup would be transported back to The Big Apple via pigeon carrier.
Based on social media activity, it does sound like there is going to be quite a flock of pigeons that will be descending upon Portland this weekend. Some say it will even rival the Moscow “pigeon apocalypse” of 2013. And the Rose City seems like it may be quite receptive. Might I suggest booking a dinner reservation at Le Pigeon on Burnside Street.
-Chris Campbell ❧
Image: Norman Rockwell, Christmas Santa Reading Mail
Author’s note: In all seriousness, Kwadwo Poku was 3rd in non-interrupting g+ above average among MLS attacking midfielders from 2015-16 and the fact that he doesn’t have multiple MVP awards right now is a tragedy.