Pigeon Post: Brazilian Strategy Edition
With NYCFC decisively rebounding from their CCL heartbreak, The Outfield answers your questions.
Editor’s Note: The post is too long for email. Be sure to check out the full post here.
Teams have been successful shutting our play out of the back down with a high press. Sometimes we can get out of it, sometimes not. We tend not to be great at playing balls over the top, so when other teams inevitably copy this strategy, what is our best way to deal with it? -myc127
Kevin: I’m inclined to believe the early struggles building through pressure can be partially attributed to the unfamiliarity- both with the position and the teammates- on the right side of the backline.
Deila turning to Andres Jasson and Cacha Acevedo at right back has offered opponents a target in foreign territory experiencing different pressure pathways than they’re used to. Even natural fullback Tayvon Gray is still developing as a buildup player and can sometimes struggle against press-aggressive frontlines. Pairing that group with newcomer Thiago Martins while he settles into the team has been a combustible mix given his passing limitations.
Martins has not been shy about playing to his right back under pressure and his preference for short passing options can make NYCFC’s ball movement predictable. Several opponents have used the Martins-to-right back pass as a pressing trigger, suffocating the buildup further back into the defensive corner where a hopeless launch upfield becomes NYCFC’s best case scenario.
But we should expect Martin’s passing range and ambition to grow as he gains comfort with this team and there’s evidence to suggest that’s already trending in the right direction if you slice Martins’ season right down the middle.
Don’t expect Martins to become some line-breaking maestro over time. But continued growth from him and the current right back crop, along with the return of Anton Tinnerholm could improve NYCFC’s ability to unlock a high press enough to temper opponent aggression.
Some teams will persist nevertheless and NYCFC can lean on some tactical motifs they’ve had success with in the recent past to mitigate their risk. The deepest lying midfielders have made it a habit of dropping into the backline, both between and wide of the center backs. Shifting one of Alfredo Morales, Keaton Parks, or Cacha Acevedo into an auxiliary center back role provides a numerical advantage when coupled with (typically) Maxi Moralez coming deep to fill the vacated midfield space. This allows the fullbacks to advance upfield where they’re better used as release valves while satisfying Maxi’s itch to orchestrate from Pirlo territory whenever the flow gets too chaotic for his liking.
NYCFC is also blessed with a crop of attackers (Castellanos, Rodriguez, Magno, not you Thiago) that can link up and break pressure. Choreographing their movements so when one drops, his neighbor stretches the backline, is a simple way of teasing some space out of a defense. And when in doubt, Castellanos is willing to play battering ram and chase long balls in behind. You’re correct in saying it’s not been a great strategy but it’s at least more digestible when the best striker in the league is on the end of it.
Maxi is still listed as a DP even though I could've sworn people said his deal was below the DP threshold. So what's the story? Does NYCFC have the ability to get 1 or 2 DPs this summer? Do you see the club using one / both? -Jon Levin
Justin: No, Maxi’s current salary is not below the Designated Player (DP) threshold. In 2022, the Maximum Salary Budget Charge was $612,500. If a player’s acquisition costs and salary goes over this amount, teams have the option to sign the player to a DP contract. In this case, Maxi Moralez is making $1.3 million so it perfectly acceptable for him to still have a DP tag.
Now, you probably intended to ask whether or not we could buy down Maxi Moralez from his DP status with Target Allocation Money (TAM) and open up a DP slot. The answer to that is yes- you can use TAM to buy down a DP and free up a DP slot as long as that player’s budget charge is under $1,612,500 in 2022 as long as you sign another DP at the same time to replace them.
So why didn’t NYCFC just sign Maxi to a TAM contract right off the bat to free up the DP slot right now? Probably because TAM is a limited resource and it makes sense to not spend it to maintain flexibility. The club could choose to buy down Maxi and open up a DP slot OR keep Maxi as a DP and spend the TAM.
Thiago Martins and Talles Magno are both firmly Designated Players for 2022 so there is no way NYCFC can open a second DP slot. You are not allowed to buy down a DP until year 3 of their contract, but even then NYCFC paid multi-million dollar transfer fees for both players and would unlike reach the TAM threshold.
The other x-factor here is actually Alexandru Mitrita. Mitrita is still technically a designated player for NYCFC, he is just out on loan and his loan that ends at the end of June. A loaned player’s DP tag doesn’t count towards the limit of 3, if they are out on loan. However, if NYCFC doesn’t find another loan destination for the rest of 2022 for the Romanian, his tag would in fact count.
I think its safe to say that NYCFC’s summer transfer strategy will largely depend on Taty Castellanos. If Talles or Heber are not the solution at striker, NYCFC is going to need to make a move for a striker in the summer window. If Talles or Heber is the solution at striker, we probably will need to add another attacker, but our depth decreases that urgency and NYCFC can focus on getting the right player.
How will the team fare in a 4-3-3 formation and which players, at which positions would make it work ? -Tyron Sangweni
Chris: Ronny has typically lined the squad up in a 4-3-3 but, there are often times different wrinkles depending on what he’s looking to exploit tactically or if the team is chasing a goal. With the current roster, there are a few “locks” in the lineup (assuming everyone is healthy): Taty at center-foward, Talles Magno at left wing, and the back five.
Historically, it’s been Maxi at the #10, though recently Santi Rodriguez has claimed that spot and it’s pushed Maxi further back. That move actually seems to suit the Maxi’s gracefully aging skillset and physical capabilities from an offensive standpoint. Keeping Santi in the middle also allows the wingers to stay much wider in the buildup. Lately, Thiago at right wing has hugged the sideline which opens up more space to operate in the right half space. When an opposing fullback gets too far forward , his wide positioning allows him to get behind the back line looking to exploit his speed in a foot race a slower center back.
Keaton at the #8 is the “starting” slam dunk. Big Bird has been the second best CM/DM in MLS in non-interrupting Goals Added(g+) in 2022. The wrinkle with Keaton is as the game progresses and if NYCFC needs to chase a goal, you can play him at the #6 and bringing on more offensive minded players to play in front of him to help generate more chances. We’ve also seen Ronny push Keaton further up lately, going away from the “double pivot” in midfield, allowing the best American midfielder in MLS to combine more in attacking sequences in the final third.
Heber.... Should he be purely a morale squad member and not play again? Or are his numbers looking promising without scoring? It's concerning with his current form, but he seems to gel the squad together really well. -Shwafta
Chris: There’s no debate that Heber is loved by teammates and fans, and that by all means he appears to be the ideal teammate, bringing fantastic vibes, and positive attitudes to the locker room and pitch.
However, it is a bit concerning that Heber has not only not found his scoring touch yet, but also he has been lackluster in terms of combining with teammates in the attacking third. It was fantastic seeing Heber get back on the score sheet Sunday against Chicago for his second on the year, but he’s struggled to find space for himself and others in the same manner of Taty Castellanos.
In 2022, Heber currently ranks 168th in MLS1 in non-penalty expected goals and assists per 90 minutes (NPxG+A/90). In addition, when its been Heber at the 9 instead of Taty Castellanos, NYCFC has had 1.05 NPxG per match, compared to 1.95 NPxG per match with Taty, and have scored just one goal across two matches, compared to 2.3 per match with Taty.
Now some of that comparison may be a bit unfair, because comparing nearly any striker in MLS to the best striker in the league, you’d expect a drop-off. But NYCFC is blessed with an abundance of attacking talent, and averaging just barely over 1 expected goal per game just won’t cut it. Perhaps the rest of the squad can become a bit more comfortable with where space opens up when Heber is on the pitch as he gains more minutes. But I’d hold my breath on expecting to see the resurgence of 2019 Megamind.
Do you think Jasson has a long term future in attack or are we just going to keep buying the next Brazilian recovering wonderkid? -JT Daniels
Kevin: Not to be dismissive of Jasson’s potential, but no. We’re far from judgment day on him given the less-than-1000-minute sample size, particularly when a good portion hasn’t been as an attacker, yet there’s been little evidence to suggest he’s going to rise to the level of Talles Magno, Thiago Andrade, or Gabriel Pereira. Jasson simply hasn’t been productive in his young career, ranking last on the team across the last two seasons in g+ above average among players who have played over 400 minutes. The only thing we can definitively say for sure he’s good at right now is getting the crap kicked out of him after drawing an ungodly 5.14 fouls per 90 in the last year. There is certainly skill in that and speaks well to his strength and ball retention abilities, but that doesn’t quite resonate when the open play attacking production doesn’t come along with it.
The calculus becomes even harder for Jasson because he’s being graded relative to his teammates and that’s just about the hardest curve you can be judged on. After all, Deila’s decision to transition him almost exclusively into a defender this season could have been just as much about Jasson’s pathway to attacking minutes as it was a need at right back. NYCFC’s plethora of attackers have set the bar so high (2nd in NPxG/96 across last two seasons) that even if some players ahead of him on the depth chart move on, Lee and Deila would likely look outside their ranks to maintain that level rather than inherit Jasson a significant attacking role sans an unforeseen breakout. Maybe they’d just go get another one of those Brazilian wonderkids you were talking about. Speaking of…
With the ascension of the Brazilian gang (Talles, Pereira, Thiago) has our strategy changed regarding the summer transfer window? -Jason Pena
Trey: First, let's approach the summer transfer window in general before we include the brasileiros. Primarily, a team would look for some frontline or depth pick-ups to bolster a side after a half-season sample size of data and injuries. Leagues on opposite calendars will have more players looking for opportunities than MLS's primary transfer window.
For this question, let's posit that a director of football wants to maximize value in every section of the playing area. If so, we'll look at New York City FC's goals added (g+) per 96 minutes in each area of the field (data from American Soccer Analysis).
Separating the pitch arbitrarily into nine sections, here's where the team stands in league ranking G+ in each segment at time of writing:
To get it out of the way - very good stuff happening. However, two major areas stand out here if you in fact have eyes. Center back depth was always a transfer priority, and the team addressed it with DP signing Thiago Martins. As new centerbacks - notwithstanding signings in general - need stability and time to gel, we'll give some leniency there. For depth, NYCFC could look for another Seb Ibeagha-esque signing or further integrate homegrown and towering Kwaku Awusu who has impressed for NYCFC II thus far.
The second glaring area of improvement is the entire right wing. Ronny Deila has expressed that signing an additional right back "would kill" the development of Tayvon Gray and Andres Jasson, so that's off the table. Also, advanced analytics loved a healthy Anton Tinnerholm up and down the touchline, and if past is prologue those numbers will certainly go up. Santi Rodriguez starting the season out of position over there and drifting inward certainly lessens the worry the data shows as well.
Now, the Brazilians. The front office has used previous transfer windows to bring these guys in, providing value and depth all over the attacking area. The benefit of the Brazilian vanguard really only leaves the Taty question, and boy oh boy if he pumps in goals at the rate he's started the season, we can surely kiss his tattooed-neck goodbye this summer.
Ronny on multiple occasions has laid out three options at the #9 slot sans Taty: Heber, Talles, or Maxi as a false 9. Heber has not shown consistent positive value added in front of the net in three and a half years. Is that something you bank on? Talles Magno is currently the best in the league in goals added while occupying the left wing position.2 Do you want to withdraw that money in the bank to deposit it in a new position he has yet to experience?
NYCFC could plan for the long term and invest in a talented young striker to blossom in 2023 and beyond. The Outfield's Paul Harvey would love a swing at U.S. national team debutant Haji Wright.3 I also would look at the 1.000 batting average of sister club Montevideo City Torque loans in Santi and Taty, and leverage a move for 21-year-old poacher Sebastián Guerrero or the second youngest player in world history to score a professional hat trick in Nicolás Siri. The NYCFC II connection could also be tapped for a left wing replacement in homegrown firecracker Jonathan Jimenez as Talles roams the box.
So, with heavy Brazilian core influence and data: the best hypothetical summer moves seem to be a young striker acquisition and a depth CB piece. But if NYCFC wants to reach into their new “II” bag, the move may be to just sit tight! If it ain't broke, etc. etc.
What are the team's stats for defending set pieces before and after The Outfield published an article on it on Aug 28th 2021? Eye test says @SoupInNYC27 cursed us, but do the underlying numbers add up as well? -Chris Choi
Paul: Whether it’s the Sports Illustrated cover, or the Madden cover, nothing has more intoxicating power that the idea that a specific piece of media has the power to sway the whims of fate in one direction or another. Lately, it seems like maybe the Outfield does have the power to curse NYCFC:
Taty really was the best striker in the league by MLS Player Elo on May 15th, only to lose that spot on a poor run of form.
James Sands was flying on July 18th after his National Team debut, but struggled post tournament.
Keaton Parks has gone against the grain by improving his performances since the most recent article, but it remains unclear if Gregg Berhalter even knows he exists.
No Outfield curse seemed to strike as swiftly as immediately post “Hold The Door”. The article was published the morning of March 15th, and that evening NYCFC collapsed almost completely against Communicaciones. The highlights show chance after chance given up through set pieces, with 2 of the 4 goals surrendered as part of a set piece play. The curse never seemed stronger than in that moment, sweating through the last few minutes of an unlikely nailbiter.
What do the numbers say? Is there a curse? After all, many superstitions disappear when subject to scrutiny. Since “Turning the Corner”, the article on how NYCFC approaches attacking set pieces, came out, NYCFC has been largely similar on set pieces. The team has taken 0.7 shots more per game from set pieces, while maintaining the exact same xG. But wait - despite the underlyings being almost identical, the overall goal scoring rate has been halved, from 0.47 to 0.24. What is that, if not bad luck?
Meanwhile, since “Hold the Door”, things have not looked good either. Leaving out CCL, which was woeful, NYCFC has given up 0.25 shots less per game. Despite this, the xGA per game has gone up 0.05 and the goals against per game has increased an absurd 0.16. Opponents prior to the article’s release had scored exactly as expected - 0.22 goals per game on 0.22 xG - but are now outperforming xG 0.38 to 0.27.
It’s clear that luck turned after those articles were published. Is it a curse? Only time will tell.
Will LB depth be something that is addressed in the summer window? Malte (in my opinion) is somewhere in the range of alright to halfway decent, but can’t seem to make it through a full 90’ without being tired. Gloster actually played alright defensively versus San Jose last week, but the rest of his performances still make me worried. -Christian Pulisickk
Kevin: It’d be surprising to me if NYCFC allocated significant resources to the left back position this summer. While Amundsen may not have taken the league by storm, he did garner the 5th-highest transfer fee on a fullback in MLS history, according to Transfermarkt. I’m well aware that transfer fees don’t equate to player values but after we dump that chunky grain of salt on the topic, I’d argue that NYCFC allocating that amount of money on Amundsen is at the very least an indicator that they viewed him as the heir apparent at left back.
His play on the field hasn’t done nearly enough to subvert that original expectation and you could say he’s slowly ascending to reach that pedigree. Amundsen has bumped up his passing g+ from +0.01 to +0.05 per 96 minutes (7th among MLS FBs), an increase fueled by improvements in both ball progression and chance creation.
If Ronny Deila and David Lee wanted to hedge their bets though, looking into some high ceiling long shots may be a worthy plan, which is essentially what they did with Chris Gloster prior to last season. Acquiring Gloster after he stagnated at PSV Eindhoven was an effort in releasing an untapped youth international potential and he showed enough of it to jump from third choice to second choice left back. Sample size caveats apply, but he’s justified his promotion with 2+ completed crosses per 90 that’s by far the most on the team and an impressive 3 shot creating actions per 90. He’s far from the most optimistic possible outcomes a year into his NYCFC tenure so the question becomes whether his arrow is pointing up enough to stay the course or take another roll of the dice on the left back lottery.
My guess is this can gets kicked down the road.
Citi Field or Yankee Stadium? -Phil
Chris: Here’s a cop out answer, it’s all give and take and it depends.
The commute is different for everyone. Yankee Stadium is better for me personally. The pre- and post- game environment is much different with bar and food options immediately outside of Yankee Stadium versus tailgating in the Citi Field parking lots. And then depending on how your seats transfer over between stadiums, it’s either a good or a bad thing.
The only reason we are now able to entertain this argument is the club lifted the Citi Field Matarrita curse with the 5-4 win against Toronto earlier this season. In fact, with the win on Sunday against Chicago, Ronny Deila is now earning 2.00+ points per game at every home stadium during MLS play (although way too small a sample size for Citi Field at the moment).
On Citi Field, it is a much more beautiful stadium in my opinion and the staff there are much more friendly than the staff at Yankee Stadium. The environment just seems more fun. Citi Field also has incredibly better food options than Yankee Stadium. With the way the supporters section is set up and the nearby overhangs, the sound seems to carry much better and it sounds a lot louder.
For Yankee Stadium, it’s been the club’s home since 2015. The nostalgia that carries along with that cannot be ignored. When I’m walking up the ramp inside the stadium on my way to Section 237, memories of past games flood my mind. The Amagat red, Yangel’s slide in the rain, Grabavoy’s brace, and Poku magic. The pre-game marches and post-game celebrations under the 4 train are always epic. The World Famous 234, Chicken Bucket chants, and those two sleepy Pumas fans at the League’s Cup match.
And it’s always fun with how much it pisses off opposing fans when they play there. Lastly, Ronny Deila, in 18 matches at Yankee Stadium, averages a Goal Differential of +2.22 per game. Deila coached teams are fun to watch in the Bronx.
With the success they’ve had, should NYCFC try to keep the same compact pitch dimensions at their new future stadium, or go for max FIFA width, or build the turf for max (for intl matches) but just mark it tight to YS specs? Corey Clayton
Paul: One of the best things about being an NYCFC fan is the general seething that results from opposing fans complaining about the size of the NYCFC pitch at Yankee Stadium. While there are certainly things to complain about (the terrible camera angles, the bad seats) the size isn’t nearly the problem it’s made out to be.
At roughly 110x70 yards, it is the size of Fulham’s famous Craven Cottage, Wolves’ Molyneux, or the cathedral of La Bombonera, and more than adequate for high level soccer. You can also tell when something is good for your team by paying attention to how many of your opponents complain about it - and when it comes to the pitch, the complaints are loud, whiny, and frequent.
It’s understandable because most MLS front offices revel in the oversized pitches that give their less technically adept players eons and acres on the ball, giving fans a rough simulacrum of high level soccer without the commitment to actual talent in possession. That’s their problem to solve; the hyper technical NYCFC roster has been built to succeed in tight spaces, short timeframes, and high-press dogfights.
It would be silly and shortsighted to move away from something that has made the team successful just to make all the teams that didn’t win MLS Cup last year happy. Instead, when a new stadium is built4, the time and money should be invested in something that makes the experience for fans better as a whole.
With a minimum set by the fact that the stadium will be expected to hold international matches, the field should be as small as possible to maintain the edge that has become a part of NYCFC’s DNA. The seats should be right up on the field, the supporters section should have safe standing, and above all it needs to be loud, terrifying place to play.
Camera angles should be a top priority and above all else - make sure there’s a place for the Tactical Cam.
Will you guys be doing any NYC II articles/analysis? What do we have to look forward to on that front? Anyone knocking on the first team door?Soccerfanatic12345
Trey: With doubling game viewing time, analysis, research, and pre- and post-match press conferences, it would be quite an effort to add that second helping on top of our usual NYCFC senior team entrée - but by gum we’ll try. I’m sure a wave of inspiration will squeeze an article or two out of the tube, but in the meantime I recommend schedule-allowable viewings of NYCFC II if only for a glimpse of 2022 4th round draft pick and charismatic, ostentatious attacker El Mahdi “Mehdi” Youssoufi. Visually, he provides an improvisational and creative spark that has produced highlight reels reminiscent of an ex-pro showing off in front of youngin’s at Sunday pick-up including literal SportsCenter Top 10 worthy moments. He backs the flair up by providing the 2nd highest goals added (G+) per 96 minutes (min. 400 minutes) in all of MLS Next Pro.
Kevin: To reiterate what Trey said, maybe? You may have noticed that our publishing frequency isn’t that robust as it is so promising anything for NYCFC II would feel disingenuous. We will take this opportunity to throw MLS Next Pro right under the bus with us for any future dearths in coverage though. It’d be easier to dive into NYCFC II if their live streams didn’t fail with regularity, those streams were available on replay, and a living human being operated the cameras instead of a robot that gets distracted by background traffic movement.. At the same time, we are doing our best to stay locked in to NYCFC II and have even been inspired to create a new Slack channel endearingly titled #playyourkids. If that’s not the first step in any new journalistic endeavor I don’t know what is, so I suppose there’s hope that this team gets more of the coverage it deserves. Not only are there a handful of exciting prospects, but Matt Pilkington is exploring some interesting tactical niches from within the greater NYCFC ethos.❧
Image: William Holman Hunt, The Festival of St Swithin (The Dovecat)
among players with 250+ minutes
Yes, the best.
Antalyaspor has apparently offered 1M Euros, which is not that steep of a cost for a current national team player.
Prayers up
Here's a question for you: what is the most surprising thing that your eyes tell you is true that your advanced stats work tells you is wrong?