NYCFC's Striker Dilemma: Finding the Right Balance on the Field
Can NYCFC find success without a striker? Kevin Nelson looks at how Nick Cushing has adapted his offensive tactics so far in 2023.
It may not have seemed like it at the beginning of the season, but New York City Football Club’s offense will be alright. NYCFC has had a tumultuous start to 2023, falling far from the high attacking standard they set over the last six years. During that stretch, only Los Angeles FC surpassed their non-penalty expected goals (npxG) per game.1
Of course, that standard was set under the steady leadership of now-departed locker room dad Maxi Moralez. NYCFC has since fallen to 16th in npxG at the quarter pole of this season in his absence, a level of offensive mediocrity that is uncharacteristic of them.
Moralez’s apprentices, with an average age of only 22.1 years old2, now captain the offense. Their growing pains have resulted in a struggle for chances but the midfield and backline cannot be blamed for the diminished production, as they have been successful in advancing possession to the final third.
One of the tactical changes manager Nick Cushing made when he took over for Ronny Deila was the further involvement of the goalkeeper in the buildup. Sean Johnson set a career-high last season in pass attempts under 30 yards per game.
This year, Cushing is doubling down on that strategy with Johnson's successor, Luis Barraza, featuring in an even more prominent role in the buildup. In fact, Barraza is being used in the buildup more than any other MLS goalkeeper in history. According to FBref, he’s averaging more passes under 30 yards per game than any player at the position in league history. Even in comparison to Sean Johnson, the man who initiated thousands of NYCFC buildups over the years, Barraza’s burden in possession dwarfs that of his predecessor.
Center backs Maxime Chanot and Thiago Martins regularly use Barraza to rotate possession from side to side. The salida lavolpiana, a heavy feature of the buildup Deila used, is no more. With Barraza now acting as the link between the central defenders, Cushing has removed the need for the defensive midfielder to drop in between the backline.
James Sands had perfected this shift from defensive midfield to center back, but since his return from Rangers, he has rarely had to make this move. With his role simplified, Sands now has the freedom to hunt for pockets of space to receive the ball from all angles as a lone midfield pivot.
While Keaton Parks has historically started possessions as Sands’ partner in a double pivot, this season he has been typically stationed 10-15 yards upfield of Sands. Opting for a single pivot and pushing Parks forward eliminates a defender from the deep midfield, which gives more space for Sands and the backline to maneuver. Parks often joins the buildup late, dropping deep when necessary to provide an additional passing option. His ability to keep a trailing defender on his backside enables him to find layoff passes to teammates in positions to progress the ball.
Outside of the familiarity Sands and Parks share, NYCFC is integrating two new fullbacks alongside the incumbent Tayvon Gray. Braian Cufré has started every game at left back since joining from La Liga, but his role varies dramatically depending on whether he’s playing opposite Gray or newcomer Mitja Ilenič.
Gray is less capable of getting forward than Ilenič and Cushing’s tactics reflect that with Gray’s average on-ball position being 5 yards deeper than Ilenič. The Bronx native stays at home considerably more than his Slovenian counterpart, sometimes even shifting inside as an elbow back, causing NYCFC’s shape in possession to resemble a back three. This allows Cufré to push far up the left as the winger on that side moves into the halfspace, assigning the fullback the responsibility of creating width in the attacking half.
When Ilenič plays, the fullbacks play the position with symmetry, both choosing their moments to provide an overlap rather than Cufré advancing up the sideline with reckless abandon. The average vertical location of Cufré ’s touches when playing with Ilenič is 8.5 yards deeper than with Gray, where his average position is within the attacking half.
This deeper group of players has done well in progressing into the attacking half, showing improved build-from-the-back patterns in recent games as they reignite old chemistry or establish it anew. According to American Soccer Analysis, NYCFC’s non-interrupting goals added (g+) in the middle and defensive third remains on par with what it was last season with other buildup metrics showing a similar stability.
However, one method of progression that is infrequently used has been direct balls in behind the defense. This deficiency stems from a lack of runs, rather than passing ability, and highlights the team’s difficulties in turning buildups into chances. That shortage of runs in behind is a consequence of the roster’s limited options at striker.
Concerns arose when Taty Castellanos was not immediately replaced, and frustration grew when Heber, the only other striker on the roster, was jettisoned without a replacement as well. Talles Magno, the heir apparent at the No. 9, moved back to the wing a handful of games into 2023 once it became clear there was a surplus of link-up play when he was central.
In an effort to correct the balance of the frontline, Cushing turned to Gabe Segal. But it turns out Segal, a natural center forward, isn’t really stylistically different than Magno. His first instinct was also to come short rather than threaten in behind so he did not provide the element of directness that NYCFC has been lacking.
A center forward who frequents linkup play with the midfield is not inherently a problem, but it requires wingers who make complimentary runs in behind. Unfortunately, NYCFC’s wingers are not inclined to do that frequently, especially in the wake of Thiago Andrade’s departure. This redundancy across the frontline has caused NYCFC’s through balls per game to drop precipitously. It has invited congestion between the lines and encouraged opponents to play aggressively on the front foot without the fear of being tested directly.
Despite the talent possessed by NYCFC’s young attackers, it is challenging for anyone to navigate through a crowded defense without the space created by direct runs in behind. Sporting Director David Lee and Cushing may have believed that the existing crop along with Richie Ledezma would be able to sauce through the small spaces afforded them all the way to the goal. However, accomplishing this is easier said than done as evidenced by NYCFC’s all-time low attacking third g+ per 96, which is about ~39% less than the franchise’s historical average.
NYCFC has dropped to 19th place in penalty box touches, a steep decline from their 2nd-place finish in 2022. Without reinforcements that supplement the missing ingredient with the team’s style, their struggles are likely to persist. The only alternative is to continue trusting in the quality of this group and their ability to accumulate the missing threat in behind in the aggregate going forward.
Playing without clear definitions of attacking roles can be challenging but it’s also harder to defend if executed properly. Without a singular force up top, an attacking group that reads one another, with someone running in behind in reaction to a teammate dropping, can have success unsettling defenses. Santi Rodriguez, currently playing as NYCFC’s central-most attacker, has already shown that he is capable of this and can identify efficient opportunities to sneak in behind a center back.
Parks has also recently augmented the attack by crashing the box and making himself available for pullbacks on the outskirts of the 18. These are patterns of progress, but achieving this level of consistent coordination requires time to develop the rhythm and understanding between all the pieces. Even if Ledezma and Segal are the only new additions to the attacking lineups, this group is still unique to this season and remarkably young.
The absence of a coach on the field like Maxi Moralez means that Nick Cushing has a greater responsibility to establish and instill these attacking patterns and hold players accountable when they fall back on their collective habit to all come short. Running in behind is often a thankless task but it is the key to bringing balance.
Although the schematics in the midfield and backline are already strong, the long-term success of NYCFC and whether they will be able to reclaim their status as a MLS Cup contender will depend on their ability to find harmony and cohesion in the attack.
If their recent performance against FC Dallas is any indication, where they created a season-high in expected goals, they’re already on the right path. Now just imagine how much easier it will be to get there if they can find the No. 9 that naturally complements the offensive group.❧
Image: Wooden Box with Bronze Balance Scale, Egypt (c. 500-600)
LAFC led MLS with a 1.74 npxG per game from 2017-2022, NYCFC are 2nd with 1.49 npxG/game
Includes Santi Rodriguez, Gabriel Pereira, Talles Magno, Matias Pellegrini, Richie Ledezma, and Gabriel Segal