All He Does Is Score Goals
All He Does Is Score Goals
But can Jovan Mijatović do it for New York City FC?
Fudbalski klub Crvena zvezda is a giant of Serbian soccer. The club, better known as Red Star Belgrade in anglophone media, boasts 34 national championships, the most in Serbia, and are only the second Eastern European team1 to win the European Cup2. That dominance is not only historical but recent as well. Red Star have won six consecutive Serbian Superliga titles and eight of the last ten.
The only competitor for Red Star’s rule over the Serbian Superliga is their bitter rival FK Partizan Belgrade. Together, these two teams create a gravitational pull akin to that of a Death Star tractor beam, pulling in all the best talent in the country to Belgrade in their perpetual battle for supremacy.3 Sometimes, they only have to look in their own backyard. That’s where Red Star found the latest gem of Serbian soccer and New York City Football Club’s newest attacker, Jovan Mijatović.
Born in Belgrade, Mijatović swiftly ascended the ranks at Red Star. Despite a serious knee injury in 2021 that sidelined him for five months, his progression remained rapid. With 20 goal contributions in approximately 1,200 minutes for the Red Star U19s upon his return, he proved too good for that level. Mijatović then graduated to the feeder club Graficar Belgrade in the Serbian second tier the following year. Eight appearances and five goals later, he was moving on again. It was evident that he was ready for the big show. Mijatović made his debut for Red Star in a UEFA Europa League match at just 17 years and 94 days old.
It’s easy to see why Red Star wanted him with the first team. All he does is score goals. The left-footed center forward is a menace in the box, combining a feathery first touch with a sledgehammer of a shot with either foot. His style is a blend of grace and power, showcasing nimbleness alongside strength. Mijatović displays a remarkable level of physicality, particularly impressive for a teenager. He effortlessly maintains balance on the ball, easily maneuvering past defenders as he slaloms through traffic. The combination of technique and athleticism has established him as one of the most promising prospects in Europe.
The only aspect where Mijatović falls short as a striker is in stretching the defense. He rarely runs in behind the defense, instead opting to react to balls played into the channel rather than making movements to proactively dictate the pass. This deficiency can build stretches where he loses influence on the game, especially when service into his feet is disrupted and his off-ball movement fails to capitalize on or create space. Just a reminder, he’s only 18 freaking years old, so this aspect of his game will likely season with more experience and development.
Even when Mijatović appears static, he can turn into his most predatory self in an instant. His casual strolls around the box during possession in the final third often lull a central defender into a false sense of security before the Serbian springs into action, accelerating away from his mark. His explosiveness in tight spaces and instinct for navigating into dangerous pockets of space have created goals at every level he has played. In the first half of Red Star’s 2023-24 season, Mijatović scored 8 goals in just over 800 minutes, reaffirming that all he does is score goals.
Mijatović might regress from that rate, but all evidence suggests he will continue to be a goal machine. According to Wyscout, he averaged 5.14 touches in the box and 4.07 shots per 90 minutes in the Serbian Superliga and UEFA Champions League this season, tallies that would have ranked 20th and 5th among MLS forwards, respectively. His consistent ability to get on the ball in the box culminated in 0.72 non-penalty expected goals (npxG) per 90 minutes. That’s 12.5% more than league leader Giorgios Giakoumakis4 had last season!
The goals headline his resume, but he’s also effective in buildup and setting up teammates as well. Mijatović averages 1.4 passes into the penalty area per 90 minutes, a statistic that would have ranked in the 74th percentile among all MLS forwards5. He applies his strength well in hold-up play, boxing out defenders while receiving progressive passes that he can lay off for oncoming teammates. Mijatović’s preference and acumen to drop in to connect with the midfield teases the idea of using him in a deeper lying role. While he has primarily played center forward early in his career and has stated his preference to play as a No. 9, he also has experience on both wings and as an attacking midfielder from his days in Red Star’s youth system.
That positional versatility may be critical in how he fits in at New York City FC. Even as an 18-year-old, Mijatović would be an unquestioned starter for the majority of MLS teams. However, he joined a team with a U22 striker coming off a top-3 goals added (g+) above-average season6. Mounsef Bakrar has established himself as Nick Cushing’s preferred center forward and the Serbian will have to fight to unseat him. Bakrar sits 6th in MLS in npxG through four games, picking up where he left off last season.
Unfortunately, Bakrar has also struggled to convert those chances, scoring only three goals from 6.78 npxG since joining New York City. That underperformance is fueled by a -2.77 xPlace, which represents the difference between the post- and pre-shot xG models. Pre-shot xG models consider the circumstance of where and how the shot is taken, while post-shot models factor in the speed and placement of the shot itself. According to American Soccer Analysis, this places him as the 4th-worst in MLS across the last two seasons. Bakrar’s performance has become a prime example for the believers within the is-finishing-real debate. If he doesn’t start meeting the expected values, his leash may get short, especially with a guy waiting in the wings who historically can’t stop scoring goals.
Ultimately, the lineup math becomes easier for all parties if Bakrar versus Mijatović can become Bakrar plus Mijatović. The latter’s versatility to play anywhere along the front line or behind the striker could make it easy for Cushing to get his best players on the field simultaneously. Utilizing two-striker sets may maximize both players’ skills, as Bakrar’s verticality provides a necessary balance to the attack and complements Mijatović’s link-up play. Additionally, deploying Mijatović wider or deeper also diversifies the attacking looks New York City can throw at other teams.
Mijatović will inevitably feature heavily in whatever attacking permutations Cushing cooks up, which might happen sooner rather than later. The offense took a step in the right direction in the victory against Toronto FC, but could use a spark to maintain that breakthrough. Currently, New York City sits 14th and 17th in npxG and shots per 96 minutes, respectively. With three goals in four games, the struggle to find the back of the net persists. While Mijatović has yet to provide that spark in the 72 minutes he’s played across three substitute appearances, don't let that distract from his potential contributions. Indeed, all he does is score goals.
It’s important that New York City got Mijatović to help reignite their attacking prowess. But it’s also important that they secured his signature at all. He signed directly with the Pigeons. Not Manchester City. Not Girona. Not whatever team is ahead of them in the City Football Group (CFG) favorite children hierarchy. Mijatović’s immense promise attracted interest from some of the biggest teams in Europe, leading to initial skepticism regarding his move to New York City. Speculation arose that CFG must be circumventing UEFA rules by sending him to MLS, or that his stint in the States could be temporary due to restrictions on playing for a third European team in the same season. Some even suspected that he would join Manchester City’s first team by the summer.
Mijatović's exceptional talent makes none of these possibilities seem far-fetched. It’s premature to rule out CFG hijinks, but his direct signing reduces concerns the prized new striker will be redirected to Europe before settling in New York. It’s more probable that Mijatović will embed himself in MLS, a league that offers more competitive depth than the Serbian Superliga and presents a reasonable next challenge. By signing with New York City FC, Mijatović, a player who openly expresses the desire to be the heir apparent to Aleksandar Mitrović and lead Serbia to a World Cup, acknowledges that he can achieve those objectives while spending his formative years in MLS. It also signifies CFG’s recognition that players can develop in MLS, not just on the field but also in transfer market potential.
New York City is now in a position to pocket the Garber bucks from the future transfer revenue that will presumably dwarf the $8.6 million purchase price. While it may take time for Mijatović to once again prove too good for the level, any growing pains won’t be because he’s affected by the bright lights of New York City. He’s already thrived in the pressure cooker.
The Eternal Derby: Red Star vs. Partizan. This matchup stands as one of the fiercest rivalries in the world. The two teams, separated only by a kilometer, monopolize the Superliga and create one of the most top-heavy leagues in the world. But when they face off, it’s the pinnacle of Serbian soccer.
This was the scene of Mijatović’s final act for the team he’s cherished since childhood.
The stakes couldn’t have been higher. Just a point separated Red Star from Partizan at the time. It was a derby with title implications. A game that could (and ultimately did) cost Red Star’s manager his job. But it was also when Jovan Mijatović, coming off a hat trick in the game prior, finally entrenched himself in the starting lineup. Having him lead the line for the full 90 minutes, on the road, in the biggest game of the season, is the truest testament of Jovan Mijatović’s talent. It was also an arena so intense that the stresses of the Hudson River Derby and MLS Cup playoffs pale in comparison.
Even in defeat, Jovan Mijatović reached the Serbian soccer mountaintop before moving on. The only thing surprising about his ascent to the Eternal Derby was that he didn’t score. After all, all he does is score goals. ❧
Image: Thomas Cole, The Mountain Ford
Steaua Bucharest won the European Cup in 1986, Red Star Belgrade won in 1991
Now known as the UEFA Champions League
Only eight of the top fifty outgoing transfers from the Serbian Superliga have been from any other team
Giakoumakis averaged 0.64 npxG/90, according to Fbref. Minimum 800 minutes
Via Fbref, minimum 841 minutes played (which may seem random, but it's the amount of minutes Mijatović played in the Serbian Superliga)
Via American Soccer Analysis. Minimum 800 minutes