Aggressive Expansion

After analyzing the results of The Outfield expansion draft survey, Paul Harvey concludes that fans should prepare to lose a key piece or valuable youngster on Wednesday.

The Expansion Draft survey results are in. With 223 respondents, the survey provides an interesting perspective on how the fanbase perceives the players on the New York City FC roster.

As a refresher, the expansion draft on December 11th allows MLS newcomer San Diego FC to select five players from the current teams in MLS. Since NYCFC did not have a player selected in the 2022 Expansion Draft by St. Louis City SC, their players will be eligible for selection.

There are some limitations - players on homegrown contracts under the age of 26 or on Generation Adidas contracts cannot be selected. This leaves NYCFC with 22 potentially eligible players. Since only 12 players can be protected, 10 players are guaranteed to be exposed. Any players with no-trade clauses in their contracts must be included among the 12. While we do not know who those players are, we can make reasonable guesses.

If NYCFC does have a player selected, they get 50K in general allocation money (GAM). That’s not a lot of money, and the vast majority of players on the roster would be worth more than that on the open marker.

The selection results provide some clear tiers for how valuable certain players are to the fans, and who can be put in danger.

Tier 0: The Auto-Protected

• James Sands

• Tayvon Gray

• Justin Haak

• Christian McFarlane

• Maximo Carrizo

• Jonathan Shore

• Andrew Baiera

• Alex Rando

These homegrowns can’t be picked. Hopefully, we’ll see more of them in the first team soon.

Tier 1: Keep Your Friends Close

1. Santiago Rodriguez: 98.2%

2. Alonso Martinez: 98.2%

3. Matt Freese: 97.8%

No surprise here - the team’s leading scorer, the main focal point of the attack, and one of the best goalkeepers in the league. If anything, it’s surprising that they weren’t at 100%. For the five of you who chose not to protect Matt Freese, I’d love to understand your reasoning. Unless, of course, you are Luis Barraza (I can’t rule that out).

Tier 2: The Good-enough Fellas

4. Thiago Martins: 88.8%

5. Malachi Jones: 88.3%
   Mitja Ilenic: 85.7%

6. Andres Perea: 82.1%

7. Keaton Parks: 81.6%

These five players are, according to NYCFC faithful, quite important for different reasons. Thiago Martins and Keaton Parks bring a wealth of experience, while Jones and Ilenic are talented young players with bright futures. Fans are optimistic about this group continuing to be a core part of the team.

If any player is a surprise inclusion, it may be Ilenic, as he isn't a full-time starter.

Tier 3: Not Everyone Here is Going To Make It

8. Hannes Wolf: 72.6%

9. Kevin O’Toole: 70.9%

10. Agustin Ojeda: 63.2%

11. Julian Fernandez: 61.9%

12. Birk Risa: 56.1%

13. Jovan Mijatovic: 51.6%

Through Tiers 1 and 2, there were a total of 8 players; now there are an additional 5. This means that at least one of these players is unprotected. Will it be one of the ones the front office invested heavily in? Kevin O’Toole is likely feeling a bit anxious this week.

Tier 4: No Country for Old Men

14. Maxi Moralez: 39.9%

While it's encouraging that 4 out of every 10 voters chose him, protecting him may not be necessary. If San Diego selects him, he could simply retire. Alternatively, he might choose not to sign with San Diego and instead become a free agent. Given his numerous exit options, San Diego is unlikely to waste a pick on him.

Tier 5: Can I Borrow a Feeling?

15. Talles Magno: 26.9%

16. Thiago Andrade: 6.7%

17. Nicolas Acevedo: 5.8%

This is the hardest tier to judge because the players aren't physically present, and it's uncharted territory for an expansion draft to take players on loan.

Talles Magno almost certainly has a no-trade clause in his contract as a Designated Player. It would be surprising if he didn’t. Even if, for some reason, he does not have one, there is a $15 million buy clause currently in place. If San Diego were to select him in the draft, would that clause transfer to them? Regardless, it seems like a significant headache that the team would prefer to avoid.

Thiago Andrade’s contract option was picked up at the end of the season. Theoretically, he is supposed to return on loan from Shenzen Peng City at the end of the month. He has been mediocre there, with 3 goals and 2 assists in 1,813 minutes for the fourth lowest-ranked team. It’s hard to imagine he holds much value at this point.

Nicolas Acevedo is also scheduled to return, although his coaching staff at Bahia has expressed interest in retaining him. He is coming back from a devastating knee injury but has quickly re-entered the regular lineup. He possesses a solid mix of ball skills and defensive ability, making him a potential selection for San Diego.

Tier 6: Take One of These Guys Please

18. Monsef Bakrar: 12.6%

19. Strahinja Tanasijevic: 5.4%

20. Luis Barraza: 3.1%

21. Rio Hope Gund: 2.7%

Whether due to disappointing performances or a lack of real impact, few would be particularly bothered to see these players excluded from selection. Monsef's inability to finish has significantly turned fan opinion against him, making him the least favored striker on the list.

Tier X: We Forgot This Guy Entirely

22. Tomas Romero: 0%

Since he could not be included in the survey, he received a score of 0 by default. In our defense, no one else noted his absence.

A Realistic Picture of the Draft

Let’s lock in our top eight players. With four spots left, it’s safe to say that the front office is unlikely to risk a potential $15 million asset if it’s even permitted. This means Magno is safe, leaving us with three spots to fill. Excluding some of the more obvious names, those spots are to be split among the following:

• Julian Fernandez

• Agustin Ojeda

• Jovan Mijatovic

• Kevin O’Toole

• Birk Risa

• Hannes Wolf

If we want a little more flexibility, we can drop Mitja from the safe group, allowing four options to protect instead of three.

That’s pretty scary. No matter what happens, either a key piece of the defensive line or a promising young player with significant investment will be available for selection. I don’t claim to have expert knowledge of every MLS roster, but I doubt that many teams face as tough of a choice at the edge of their roster. This likely means that a New York City player will be heading to San Diego when all is said and done.

I guess we’ll find out on Wednesday. ❧

Image: John Martin, The Last Judgement