Without Messi
Despite missing the greatest player of all time, Alec Kossoff looks at how Inter Miami can still beat New York City FC.
Lionel Messi plays an indispensable role for Inter Miami CF, serving as the linchpin that makes his team click. His influence on the field is unmistakable and it's no exaggeration to describe him as a freak of nature. Despite playing in only half of Miami’s Major League Soccer regular season so far, tallying a mere 270 minutes across six games, Messi has already notched three goals and boasts the fourth-highest total expected goals (xG) in the league.
Everything at Inter Miami runs through him. When Messi is present, the team’s record stands at 2-1-0; however, in his absence, it dwindles to 1-0-2. In matches where Messi has started, the team has eight goals scored, while only conceding one. Conversely, without him, they have managed five goals but have conceded eight. Messi leads the team in goals added (g+) with a remarkable 1.47 and an impressive xG of 1.9. This puts him analytically among the best chance creators in MLS.
So now you’re saying he’s not playing? Per the Miami Herald’s Michelle Kaufman, Messi has been confirmed to miss this game due to a hamstring injury he has been battling over the last few weeks.
Unfortunately for New York City, Messi is not the only dangerous weapon that the Pigeons must worry about.
Miami Still Has the Other Parts of the “Big Four”
Suarez
Luis Suarez appeared to struggle during the pre-season and the initial games, displaying a lack of fitness, coordination with teammates, and failing to score in the first two matches and only contributing one assist. However, his recent resurgence is perhaps one of the best stories of this season. Despite a decline in athleticism, Suarez is still an absolute animal. In just 199 minutes across the last four games, he has netted four goals and provided two assists for a total of three assists in the campaign. In the last three games, he has had a goal contribution every 33 minutes. This remarkable run underscores the significance of positioning for elite strikers, particularly with Suarez's finishing prowess. While he is overperforming his xG of 1.6, it would be unwise to expect a fall from grace for a striker with his pedigree that delivered 17 goals and 11 assists in 33 games last year in Brazil.
Alba
Jordi Alba has been one of the more reliable players among Inter Miami’s “Big 4” this season. He has started in five of the six games, accumulating a total of 465 minutes of playing time. According to FBRef, he ranks impressively in various metrics, placing in the 99th percentile for non-penalty expected goals (npxG), the 95th percentile for progressive passes, and the 98th percentile for progressive passes received among fullbacks. He has one goal and one assist so far this campaign and has been a dangerous attacking threat. His offensive numbers are elite, but his defensive numbers are less impressive.
However, Miami manager Tata Martino isn’t tasking the Spaniard with defensive responsibilities. In Miami's standard 4-3-3 formation, Alba typically operates as the highest player in the defensive line. When Miami switches to a back-three formation, he essentially takes on the role of a winger.
Busquets
Sergio Busquets has held a unique role for every team he’s played on, and his tenure for Inter Miami is no exception. He carries the responsibility of both being a sweeper and regista for the team, tasked with retaining possession while springing attacks and pushing the ball forward. Currently, he ranks in the 96th percentile for passes attempted, 81st percentile for progressive passes, 89th percentile for tackles, and 86th percentile for interceptions. These statistics seem to be generally above average, but it is his field positioning that truly stands out.
Traditionally playing as a defensive midfielder, Busquets’ ability to consistently make progressive passes is particularly intriguing. A direct comparison with James Sands illustrates this point vividly, as Busquets averages nearly 1.9 more progressive passes per 90 minutes - a staggering 43% difference. His tireless workrate and his two-way ability provide a safety net to the rest of the “Big 4”, allowing them the confidence to get forward and create danger, knowing that Busquets will diligently clean up behind them.
Why Inter Miami CF Will Win
As previously mentioned, Inter Miami is one of the deepest teams in Major League Soccer right now, and perhaps ever.
Even without Messi, Miami still has Suarez, Alba, Busquets, Robert Taylor, Leo Campana, Julian Gressel, Federico Redondo, and numerous other weapons in their arsenal. The team boasts an abundance of high-end talent that makes them the most formidable force in MLS this season. New York City FC finds themselves unlucky to face Inter Miami CF early in the season before the wear and tear of regular play has significantly impacted their aging depth.
Not only are they deep at every position, but they also boast significant experience. The average age of the Herons’ current starting XI when all of their “Big 4” is playing is 30.2. This indicates that they are a win-now team and their current form reflects that. With 13 goals scored in six games, they lead the league in scoring, averaging a goal roughly every 42 minutes.
How NYCFC, a team that has only scored three total goals this season, can keep pace with Inter Miami, a team whose dangerous attack has scored at least three goals in a single game three times already this season, is a legitimate concern.
What does New York City FC have to do to win?
The Pigeon's current form has been frustrating. With one win on the campaign so far, it is difficult to feel confident in the team’s chances. Facing Messi & Co in this game would present a daunting challenge, a particularly impossible task playing away from home.
However, there is a glimmer of hope for the Pigeons. Not only will Messi be absent, but Inter Miami CF has a crucial CONCACAF Champions Cup game on April 3rd, facing Monterrey CF at home just four days after their match against New York City FC. It’s expected that due to fixture congestion, Inter Miami will need to rotate their team to ensure their squad is fit for the more important continental game.
When Messi has been injured, Inter Miami has looked incredibly pedestrian. Moreover, considering the possibility of managing minutes for key players like Alba, Busquets, and Suarez, the likelihood for New York City to get a result against the Herons increases.
Inter Miami's defense has been lackluster this season, conceding nine goals, which positions them in the bottom third of the league despite their significant goal-scoring prowess. They notably struggle with defending balls over the top, a weakness that should have Mounsef Bakrar eager, as he enjoys exploiting the space behind opponents' back-lines. New York City has only scored three goals this season, placing them at the bottom of the league, but their team xG of 5.7 over five games suggests they've been relatively adept at creating opportunities despite their lack of finishing. Considering Miami's defensive vulnerabilities, it's reasonable to anticipate several chances for New York to capitalize on.
Another aspect of this game worth discussing is the press. The Pigeons' style of soccer tends to struggle against teams that employ intense pressing tactics. Fortunately for New York City FC, Miami does not press aggressively. Their PPDA (passes per defensive action) is around 11 in all competitions, indicating a lower pressing intensity compared to teams like the Red Bulls (~10.5), St. Louis (~9), and Philadelphia (~9). Additionally, it's reasonable to assume that Miami's slower pace affects their ability to press effectively. As a result, New York City should have more freedom to play their style of soccer, allowing the players an opportunity to settle into the game and express themselves.
So You're Telling Me There's a Chance?
No? Yes? Maybe? Winning away in MLS during the regular season is notoriously difficult. While Inter Miami is a formidable team, the Pigeons have struggled. Expectations for earning points away in Miami should be tempered. However, Miami faces challenges heading into this match, including a congested schedule and the need for player rotation. This presents opportunities for New York City FC to implement their style and build confidence throughout the game. Nevertheless, this remains a tough challenge in a challenging environment at a challenging time.
Despite the difficulty, several favorable circumstances make this match a must-watch. As noted philosopher Drake once said, "Pain makes you stronger. Fear makes you braver. Heartbreak makes you wiser." If that's true, fans of New York City FC must be among the strongest, bravest, and wisest individuals around. ❧
Image: Ram Das, Grey Heron
I'd love to steal a point here. Then, if we go 2W-2D-0L on the four-game homestand, we'll be at 12 points after 10 games. Right on target.