Three for Three
Three games, three red cards, and Keaton Parks with a new job description.
Maxime Crépeau did New York City Football Club a favor. The Orlando City goalkeeper flew off his line in the 16th minute to claim a pass over the top, but went too far, handling the ball outside the penalty box and earning an immediate red. Crépeau’s overzealousness was unnecessary, however. Even though Nicolás Fernández Mercau bore down on him, he could have claimed possession safely from within the box or punched it clear if his momentum was too strong.
Red cards can be that way. Some are random, lucky even. Others are earned. Fernández Mercau drew the foul that sent off Emiro Garcés in the first game of the season, even if the Los Angeles Galaxy center back seemed destined for red that day. Philadelphia Union center back Olwethu Makhanya received his second yellow to no credit to NYCFC, but only because he caught referee Chris Penso in a sensitive mood. Crépeau’s straight red card falls somewhere in between. The Pigeons did play a threatening ball over the top that forced the Orlando keeper to sweep up, but his execution was so poor that he deserves most of the credit for the next 75 minutes.
Early into the 2026 campaign, NYCFC is now 3-for-3 in opposition red cards. As far as strategies go, finding a way to have an opponent sent off is about as good as they get. Since 2013, playing 11 vs. 10 in MLS has been worth 1.01 non-penalty expected goals (npxG) per 96 minutes. Analyses from Mark Tyler, Intelligent FC, and Data Between the Lines suggest the impact may be even larger and varies between home and away. Only LAFC in 2019, at 1.11 npxGD, has cleared that threshold in the American Soccer Analysis database — meaning a man advantage turns you into roughly the team of the decade.
Through three games, 41.8% of New York City’s minutes have been played a man up and are performing even better than that average advantage, with a 1.37 npxGD/96. The Pigeons punished the Galaxy and Union with the man advantage. What they did to Orlando City was something else — battering the visitors 5- 0 and hammering the final nail in Oscar Pareja’s coffin.
New York City didn’t need the favor — not for the first fifteen minutes, anyway. Before the red card, the NYCFC outshot Orlando four to one and dictated the game with 64.4% possession. Orlando entered the game 29th in MLS in npxG allowed and continued to struggle at full strength. Wingbacks Tyrese Spicer and Griffin Dorsey pushed high in attack, creating gaps between the wingbacks and outside center backs in transition.
Right-winger Agustín Ojeda repeatedly exploited this gap outside Tahir Reid-Brown. First, Ojeda drew a yellow on Reid-Brown and created the best chance of the even-strength period, but Moralez’s shot from point-blank range went over the bar. Then, Ojeda continued to feast after Crépeau’s red card. The Argentine winger volleyed in the first goal immediately after play restarted and struck again in transition, playing Fernández Mercau in behind, leading to a penalty and NYCFC’s third goal.
New York City’s success owed something to Pascal Jansen’s decision to push Keaton Parks into the frontline. Jansen toyed with this move even before the red card, and Parks’ run in behind was arguably the target of Moralez’s ball in behind on Crépeau’s fateful mistake. After the red card, Jansen leaned into this tactic further with Parks essentially operating as an auxiliary striker until substituted off in the 71st minute. Often the most advanced attacker for New York City, Parks constantly ran off the shoulder of an Orlando center back whenever a teammate received in space. Sometimes target, sometimes decoy, Parks occupied Nolan Miller on the second goal, creating just enough space for Fernández Mercau to head in Moralez’s cross.
The floodgates were wide open going into halftime, but Parks’ hunger to attack the backline remained unsatisfied in the second half. Pareja made two changes at halftime to shift into a 5-1-3. It only provided fresh meat for Parks. Both goals came within ten minutes and looked alike: Parks rushing to the penalty spot the moment Gray, then Moralez, found space on the right.
Parks’ goals put the exclamation point on a resounding win in the Pigeon’s home opener. Trey Fillmore of Blue Balls and The Outfield asked Parks after the match about the logic behind his positioning.
“It was a little bit of both. Part of the plan was for me to get a bit higher when we haven't established an attack. So Maxi and Nico get on the ball, and then there was a bit of a target in the box on crosses and stuff. But then it worked out kind of in our favor where we didn't need so many guys back to build the ball up anyways whenever they lost a man. It was just easier for me to stay higher, and I think I'm a big target, and take the attention away from the defenders at least on crosses for other people to score. And if not, I have good chances of scoring.”
The red card pushed Jansen toward Parks on the front line, but the wrinkle looks useful beyond Orlando — especially as Jansen searches for his ideal attacking shape. Red cards have helped Jansen’s hand early, but there’s genuine promise that a coherent attack is possible with this group.
Good teams take the opportunities in front of them, and the Pigeons have. NYCFC currently sits 4th in MLS with a dominant npxGD. A large portion of that comes from bullying teams down a man — but their npxG and npxGD in even-strength minutes would still leave them 13th and 10th in the league. And all of this with false 9s and a failed signing of a designated player striker. ❧
Image: John Sloan, The Lafayette