The Anatomy of Pigeons

The transfer window is closed. The MLSPA has released the salary data. The Outfield looks at how New York City FC's roster was constructed from the backline to the frontline.

Goalkeepers: How Matt Freese Became the Backbone of NYCFC’s Defense by NYCFC Tactics

Matt Freese’s shot-stopping skills have secured his position as the starting goalkeeper. Luis Barraza, a team member since 2019, initially took the role in 2023, making 24 MLS starts due to his tenure and ball-playing ability. However, the Marquette graduate lost the spot, recording a -4.1 Post-Shot Expects Goals =/- (PSxG+/-), which measures the likelihood of a goalkeeper making a save, on 92 shots on target. One might attribute this poor performance to set pieces and moments where Barraza’s height and build were detrimental. However, during the same number of starts, Barraza conceded 5 goals from set pieces, while Freese conceded 4.

Over the 25 MLS games since Freese has posted a +6.4 PSxG+/- on 111 shots on target. A swing of roughly 10 goals is a trend too large to ignore, which explains why he received a contract extension this offseason. This extension keeps him at the club until 2026, with an option for 2027. Conversely, Barraza’s current contract ends this year, with a club option for 2025. There is a possibility that Luis will be traded this summer to an MLS club struggling with goalkeeper production, such as San Jose, for allocation money.

The club also signed Tomas Romero, a local player who began his MLS career with LAFC in 2021, to be the third-string keeper, replacing the now-retired Cody Mizell. The 23-year-old has started in the US Open Cup for NYCFC II this season and is considered a low-risk bet for goalkeeper depth. His contract ends in 2024 but includes two years of club options if he exceeds expectations.

The fourth goalkeeper on the roster for 2024, a rarity in MLS roster construction, is homegrown player Alex Rando. He is of the same generation as Haak, Gray, Jasson, and Sands, but his developmental curve is slower as a goalkeeper. His shot-stopping in 2024 has improved, and he has logged over 3,000 minutes in MLS Next Pro across its three seasons. His homegrown status offers him more roster protection than Romero, but his contract ends in 2024 with team options until 2027.

Overall, this position has a high floor and a potentially even higher ceiling due to Freese’s rise as a potential US Men’s National Team player. The club is in the bottom five in salary per goalkeeper, bottom ten in total salary spent on goalkeepers, and has one of the youngest goalkeeping units in MLS (25.5 average age vs 28.1 MLS average age). However, if the club doesn't pick up options on Barraza, Rando, or Romero, and Freese attracts European interest, NYCFC could have no goalkeepers for 2025.

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Defenders: The Evolution of NYCFC’s Back Line by Chris Campbell

NYCFC finished the 2023 season with top defensive marks in MLS, placing third in xGA, fifth in shots allowed, and sixth in xGA per shot. However, the defensive group was average in generating chances and lost its main contributor to the attack from the back line, defender Braian Cufre.

With Cufre’s departure and the late 2023 exit of NYCFC defensive legend Maxime Chanot, significant gaps appeared in the roster at left back and center back. Despite these needs, only one addition was made to the back line during the latest transfer window: Serbian center back Strahinja Tanasijevic from Spartak Subotica.

As the 2024 season approaches its midpoint, the defensive statistics remain consistent with the prior season, while offensive production is beginning to improve, particularly from the fullback position. Tayvon Gray has provided assists in the last two matches, Kevin O’Toole has scored a goal and assisted once this year, and Mitja Ilenic has showcased his best form in his NYCFC career over the past month and a half.

While the back line has been effective at limiting chances this year, it remains difficult to justify utilizing a Designated Player spot for center back Thiago Martins. Martins is the second-highest-paid center back in the league and does not contribute enough in attack to justify occupying the valuable DP spot. Birk Risa, earning $660,000, and Tanasijevic, earning $240,000, seem to provide solid value in comparison.

NYCFC’s current strategy of nurturing fullback talent into contributing players appears to be yielding positive results at this point. The combined salaries of NYCFC’s fullbacks rank as the fourth lowest in MLS at the position.

As the upcoming summer transfer window approaches, NYCFC must prioritize the acquisition of a left back to provide relief for Kevin O’Toole. Although the former Superdraft pick has shown promise, he cannot reliably play the full 90 minutes in every match. Moreover, Nick Cushing's reluctance to grant first-team minutes to homegrown standout Christian McFarlane leaves the team lacking in depth at the position.

Midfielders: The Value of Stability by Kevin Nelson 

While significant turnover has occurred among the attackers and defenders, New York City’s midfield group retains a comforting familiarity. The midfielders remain unchanged from last season, with four of the five who have seen the field in 2024 having been with the team for four or more seasons.

David Lee has assembled an effective group of midfielders who complement each other nicely. The midfield position shines even brighter with the addition of Santiago Rodriguez, the sole true attacking midfielder in the mix. Following a challenging 2023 season for Rodriguez and the team overall, the Uruguayan is on a mission, and no opponent is safe. With 8 goal contributions and a 14th ranking in MLS for non-penalty expected goals and assists, Rodriguez has unquestionably emerged as a star, representing excellent value with his modest DP salary of $1.3 million.

On the opposite side of the midfield spectrum is James Sands, a player who epitomizes the "defensive" aspect of the defensive midfielder. While Sands' distribution (-0.02 passing g+) hasn't developed as much as some had hoped, his conservative passing style serves its purpose within a team where his primary role is to feed the ball to the creative players and disrupt opposition attacks. His proficiency in breaking up counterattacks single-handedly provides Perea and Keaton Parks the freedom to advance and contribute to the team's offensive efforts.

Perea has thrived in that role, evident from his ranking as the second-best midfielder in receiving goals added per 96. Despite being slightly less impactful than his peak in 2022, Parks remains the most versatile midfielder on the roster. In Sands' absence, he adeptly fills the deepest-lying midfielder role. Still, he excels as a box-to-box midfielder, seamlessly connecting with the backline during the buildup and providing a late-arriving threat in the penalty area. Head coach Nick Cushing can confidently deploy any of the three from this quartet and uphold the team's solid midfield balance.

A pessimist might focus on the depth after those four, but Justin Haak remains on the team and could provide cover for Sands, while Maxi Moralez waits in the wings as a potential attacking threat from midfield once he recovers from his knee injury. David Lee has achieved excellent value with this position group, with New York City ranking 6th in MLS in g+ per $ million of salary.

Attackers: Rolling the Dice by Trey Fillmore

As July 2023 approached, NYCFC General Manager David Lee had a clear priority for the upcoming summer transfer window. The team's xG per match stood at a disappointing 1.14, a significant departure from the usual elite 1.7 xG range seen in previous seasons. This decline not only represented a stark deviation but also threatened to relegate them to the ranks of the league's weakest offenses. With deficiencies evident across the front line, upgrades and depth were essential.

As a temporary remedy that summer, Lee brought in a new striker, Mounsef Bakrar, to replace the failed Talles "Mag9" striker experiment, the departed Gabriel Pereira stand-in Julian Fernandez, and depth addition Alonso Martinez. Following these acquisitions, New York's offense displayed signs of improvement, evidenced by an increase to 1.45 xG after the changes.

With the offense still falling below the usual standard of output, Lee approached the most recent winter transfer window with a strategy primarily focused on fostering competition to bring out the best in younger players. It's a risky proposition, relying on the coaching staff's ability to develop young talent while hoping for patience from fans. Prioritizing a youth-centric roster approach can seem like a gamble, but David Lee and NYCFC view it as playing Yahtzee - simply rolling more dice.

In 34 days this preseason, the team added four new options up front to complement the previous three additions. Many of these signings were like-for-like, aimed at fostering a belief in young and competitive position battles. Agustin Ojeda was brought in as an analog in pedigree and age to Fernandez, while Hannes Wolf was a veteran restoration project on the wing, similar to Martinez. Instead of pursuing an aging talisman acquisition up top, Lee adhered to the high-ceiling, high-risk philosophy by investing in the pricy yet young Jovan Mijatovic, who would develop alongside Bakrar as both were success stories from Eastern European leagues. Lastly, Malachi Jones joined from the draft, adding to the long line of promising NYCFC draftees with an uncertain roster spot in the future.

Of the seven additions, five fall within a guaranteed compensation range of $328,000 to $687,000. This appears to be a conservative yet savvy approach to acquiring young attacking talent. These figures are enticing enough to pry players away from potentially larger future earnings, while not being so high that any underperformances would be considered disastrous mismanagement of money. At first glance, Hannes Wolf may seem overpaid, with a guaranteed $1.5 million take-home pay, surpassing that of two of NYCFC’s three DPs. However, Wolf has integrated well into the team, and his 2.5 non-interrupting g+ significantly exceeds that of the second-ranked player on the squad, Santi Rodriguez (0.83 g+). Assuredly, this investment appears to have been fair.

The biggest challenge here lies in Talles Magno's $1.2 million salary cap hit and the coveted DP roster spot he occupies. The Brazilian has yet to return to his stellar form of nearly two years ago, and persistent knee problems have limited him to just seven minutes of playtime this season. However, this boondoggle has become more manageable, given Malachi Jones' impressive performance with the fourth-best non-interrupting g+ on the squad, despite his modest supplemental roster spot payday of $71,000.

Moving forward, like in a game of Yahtzee, Lee and his team must decide which dice rolls to keep and which to roll again. The currently crowded attacking room may not accommodate any more additions this summer, but as the season progresses, there will be flexibility in determining which contracts to retain and how to address Magno’s roster status. Despite Bakrar's historically unproductive start to the year, NYCFC's offense has displayed numerous glimpses of promise and continued growth. This should instill confidence in both the front office and the fans regarding the team's ability to refresh and improve soon. ❧

Image: Giuseppe Del Medico, Anatomia per uso dei pittori e scultori