Prometheus Chained
Nick Cushing’s conservatism shackled NYCFC in 2023.
Ronny Deila had a problem. He introduced himself to New York City Football Club in 2020 with grand visions of attacking flair and a devil-may-care approach toward defending, stating, “I'd rather win 5-4 than 1-0, that's more fun for everybody.”
Despite these promises, NYCFC would suffer a brutal four game losing streak before COVID shut the world down. The MLS is Back Tournament offered little comfort after the initial rush of soccer being played again. The team struggled to create chances, averaging a stagnant 1.1 expected goals (xG) per game through August 20th, punctuated by a pathetic 1-0 Hudson River Derby defeat.
At the moment, NYCFC was broken. Team leaders confronted Deila and demanded a return to NYCFC’s hallmark style of expressive, expansive play. That would mean rejecting the controlled, defensive approach that had led to the worst start since NYCFC’s expansion season.
Ronny listened. The rest of Deila’s tenure was a roaring success, the apex of which was the 2021 MLS Cup run. That was the perfect hybrid of NYCFC’s foundational attacking character and the kind of defensive toughness and solidity that had been lacking in key games. The team put up a remarkable 1.73 xG per game before his departure in June of 2022, solidifying his legacy as one of the most dominant coaches in MLS history during his time with NYCFC.
The Cushing Era
Nick Cushing finds himself in a situation similar to Ronny Deila’s. He currently stands as the most conservative coach in NYCFC history, showcasing a lack of aggressiveness demonstrated by several key metrics. His approach is a sharp departure from what made Deila successful and may significantly contribute to the dire circumstances the team currently grapples with.
Of course, Cushing has had his fair share of adversity imposed on him by the front office and bad luck. Injury issues have at times greatly limited his roster selection options, and the winter clear-out put him in a precarious position heading into the season.
Nonetheless, the manager bears ultimate responsibility for the team’s performance, and Cushing has made notable strategic and tactical choices that have had a significant impact on the team’s on-field play.
The Way Nick Plays
Cushing’s conservatism is most evident in his player’s pass selection. The risk profile of a team is one of the ways a manager can influence the individual players, and when compared to past managers, particularly Deila who had many of the same players, a few trends begin to emerge. Cushing’s teams are significantly less aggressive in passing, preferring to play the ball more horizontally than vertically.
This is especially noticeable when examining individual performances. Notably, there are accomplished, capable players, such as Keaton Parks, James Sands, and Maxime Chanot, who are fully capable of playing more aggressively. These players didn’t forget how to play soccer the way they wanted to play when Cushing came aboard. The most simple explanation is that they are playing differently in response to managerial instruction.
What is clear is that there is a focus on safe passing, particularly to and from the back line. The center backs under Cushing have taken on a larger share of the ball, but have not been aggressive line breakers. Deila was a much more risky manager, but his players tended to complete passes above expected - rewarding his aggression with positive plays and goals.
This tendency is a common pitfall for possession-heavy teams - Frank de Boer’s Atlanta might be the platonic ideal of the toothless possession side. From de Boer, to Gabriel Heinze, and even well into Gonzalo Pineda’s tenure, Atlanta dominated possession but never converted that possession into points. It took a generational wonder kid - an MVP-caliber Thiago Almada - to make Atlanta a threat in the East again. It’s unlikely that NYCFC will make such a transformative investment to rejuvenate its underwhelming attack.
Where Did the Press Go?
Another major difference that emerged in the very beginning of Cushing’s tenure, is the abandonment of the high press as a tool to flip the field and create scoring chances. Cushing has opted for a more conservative approach to pressing, dropping more frequently into a mid or low block rather than committing numbers up the field.
This stands in stark contrast to Deila’s preferred style, and in fact, the high press has been an integral part of NYCFC’s DNA since its inception. The “Manchester City” blueprint relies on an aggressive counter press to support a patient possession offense, keeping opponents pinned back and creating cheap chances off of mistakes. With Cushing quickly dropping NYCFC this team into their defensive shape, those chances to capitalize on opponent mistakes simply never exist.
Offensive Efficiency
Between the cautious attack and the abandoned high press, NYCFC could neither create dangerous opportunities through chaos or manufacture them through possession play. What that meant was the offensive efficiency of NYCFC cratered. While Deila’s team was among the most ruthless teams not just in MLS but across the world, Cushing’s team was among the worst in MLS. It took, on average, 505 passes for NYCFC to generate a single expected goal. Eastern Conference leaders Cincinnati took just 342. Aspirational peer Columbus Crew took just 390.
Losing On the Margins
In terms of xG, the biggest change under Cushing has been a shrinking of the margins. His defensive approach is unquestionably solid, limiting meaningful chances for opponents. In fact, the 39 regular season goals allowed are tied for the lowest goals per game among non-playoff teams in the Designated Player era. However, the significant decrease in offensive performance has offset this achievement and made the margins slim.
When the margins are slim, the potential for dropping points increases. A team generating 2.5 xG in a game can often afford to give up a shock goal here or there. The range of positive outcomes is much greater because frequently scoring 2 or 3 goals creates a cushion for any mistakes. Moreover, it’s also more entertaining, and isn’t that the whole point of the sport?
But under Cushing, when the team concedes a freak goal to bad luck or bad goalkeeping, there is little confidence in a comeback. The slim margins over the course of the season amplify the impact of luck. When it’s time for the NYCFC offense to chug to life, it feels unfamiliar and arduous.
Breaker of Chains
Ronny Deila heeded his team’s call. He broke the chains that had been holding them back, releasing them as a force on a league that wasn’t ready for them. In doing so, he became a legend. Cushing has not followed suit. Despite staring the worst outcome since the expansion season dead in the face, he still could not attempt a more expansive and risky game.
All signs point to Cushing starting the 2024 season as NYCFC’s manager. In fact, NYCFC stands as the only team to miss the playoffs that released an announcement backing the team leadership. That leaves only two ways out of this quagmire - either the team gets top players capable of seizing a game by the scruff of the neck, or Cushing takes his failures of the past season to heart and radically changes his approach in the buildup and pressing. ❧
Image: Willy Pogany, Prometheus Chained to a Rock with Bird Approaching
