Pigeon Post: 'Is NYCFC Bad?' Edition
Pigeon Post: 'Is NYCFC Bad?' Edition
The Outfield answers your questions on what the analytics are showing, James Sands, Nick Cushing's hot seat, and more in this early season mailbag.
Questions were edited for length and clarity.
ZYanksRule: “What are the analytics saying about our start? Is there reason to believe we'll improve, or are we regressing from the end of last year?”
Justin Egan: New York City FC should have more points than they do. According to American Soccer Analysis’ Expected Points (xPts) metric, they should have 8.07 points instead of the current 5. The bad news is that it still only ranks 22nd in the league.
The most notable shift from 2023 to 2024 has occurred defensively. While NYC faced offensive challenges last year, their defense was stellar, ranking third with 1.04 expected goals against (xGA) per game. This year, however, that figure has surged by over 40% to 1.46 per game.
The absence of Maxime Chanot leading the defense is a significant factor, but other defensive roster issues plague the team. Kevin O’Toole appears to be the only viable left back, while on the right side, injuries have hampered Tayvon Gray, one of the league's top 1v1 defensive fullbacks.
Until NYCFC shores up their defensive line and addresses offensive shortcomings beyond Mounsef Bakrar’s xG underperformance, they are likely to remain both analytically and tangibly at best a mediocre team.
Lazydawg11: “Is Cushing in the hot seat? If not then how much longer until he is? Or will the front office stick with him all 2024 no matter what?”
John Baney: The front office is unlikely to stick with Nick Cushing “no matter what.” While his leash has exceeded some fans’ expectations, it’s not endless. Recently, there were some whispers that his job could be in jeopardy had his side lost to Toronto FC at home. However, a Santiago Rodriguez worldie and a spectacular trivela assist from Julián Fernández saved him from testing that speculation. Nevertheless, with no further victories in the three subsequent matches, the pressure on him remains palpable.
The upcoming 5-match home stretch may be critical for Cushing’s future in NYC. While Brad Sims and David Lee might not have a specific ‘magic number’ in mind, it’s fair to say a draw against a Giakoumakis-less Atlanta United side is a lukewarm start at best.
SometimesObsessed: “What do you think of Sands' play? Does he still deserve a starting spot?”
Trey Fillmore: Despite James Sands’ rocky defensive start to the season, the young veteran currently leads the league in interceptions, ranks 7th in attempted tackles, and sits 6th in tackles won thanks to a solid string of matches. Jimmy has rediscovered his enforcer mentality. This was particularly evident against Cincinnati where he zoomed missile-like around the box and prevented the reigning MVP Lucho Acosta from providing any serious threat outside of one MVP-ish run of play.
The key to Sands’ spot in the starting lineup is whether Cushing and the team will focus on maximizing his strengths and mitigating his weaknesses. Initially, Cushing seemed intent on running a double-pivot midfield to provide defensive cover, maintain numbers in the center of the pitch, and inject dynamism into attacking play. However, Sands currently sits in the 12th percentile of all central and defensive midfielders in possession value measured by offensive goals added (g+), prompting a natural drift towards a singular defensive midfielder to limit his offensive involvement. This raises the floor of himself, Keaton Parks by freeing his usage defensively, and the team’s base level of play.
Despite this adjustment, there appears to be a lack of full commitment. Jimmy sometimes fails to cover his center-backs against balls played over the top, likely due to a high line of engagement instructed during possession phases. A more aggressive lean into inverted wingers and tailored coaching around a rolling ball of knives role for Sands should finger the dam long enough to allow for further development in secondary responsibilities down the road.
Ethan Zomek: Is there anything more random than Cushing rotating the other wing spot? Is there a timeline for Talles at all?
JE: The club has not provided a timeline for Talles' return, nor have they disclosed the specifics of his injury. I did catch a glimpse of him outside the locker room last Saturday, but the club refused media requests to speak with him. That being said, I am eagerly anticipating Talles' return to the field, especially considering our offensive struggles. Hopefully, this injury won't have a significant impact on him. Given our difficulties on offense, it's natural to rotate players in search of a successful combination.
ALBNYfan: “Are we more of a farm team than at any other point in our history? Will the gaffer keep his job regardless of results because his main job now is developing talent?”
Alec Kossoff: In NYCFC's history, Manchester City has only purchased one player for their senior team—Jack Harrison. Additionally, there have been a few youth players like Shay Facey, Angeliño, and Yangel Herrera who have come over on loan, but there have been no direct dealings between New York and Manchester for over six years. Of those four players, only Angeliño saw any minutes for Manchester City.
The Pigeons loaned Taty Castellanos to Girona, who also signed Alexander Callens on a free transfer, but this occurred after NYCFC's cup win in 2021. Currently, CFG is heavily investing in New York with the construction of a new stadium, clearly indicating the ambition to build a winning team while maintaining their popularity.
If the question concerns the presence of youth players on the team, it's understandable why some may perceive NYCFC as merely developing talent for the parent club. However, it's more probable that the youth on the team reflects NYCFC's success in player development, exemplified by players like Jack Harrison, Taty Castellanos, Gabriel Pereira, and others. Additionally, it's unlikely that Manchester City, or any other large CFG club, relies on NYCFC solely for talent development. MLS rules also play a significant role in promoting youth development. As MLS aims to become a selling league, there are substantial incentives for teams to acquire and nurture young talent. Initiatives such as the U-22 initiative and Young Designated Player rules encourage teams to invest in young players with the potential for high resale value. Therefore, to answer the question, no, New York has not been and is unlikely to become, a farm team for Manchester City or any other CFG club in the future.
Autto421: “Can someone explain our front office’s aversion to proven attackers? The only relatively known quantity in the attack we've bought since we moved away from David Villa is Héber. Everyone else has been a project.”
AK: In a pre-season interview, Chris Campbell asked David Lee a question very similar to this one. Paraphrasing Lee, he suggested that investing in attacking players tends to be more expensive. Therefore, it's wiser to utilize league mechanisms like DP spots and U-22 initiatives in areas where the team can maximize their value. Santi Rodriguez, when he received the DP tag, was already a proven attacker in the league. Talles Magno, brought in as a young DP, made an immediate impact. Before Taty Castellanos' departure in 2022, there was an argument that Talles was one of the best wingers in the league. Currently, our three U-22 initiative signings are Jovan Mijatovic, Agustín Ojeda, and Julian Fernandez. Monsef Bakrar, who was signed before Jovan, was also a U-22 player.
It appears that David Lee's strategy aims to maximize the attacking talent level by investing in expensive young attackers who can join the team without significantly affecting the salary cap. This approach allows NYCFC to allocate more resources towards acquiring players to complement them and achieve a more balanced XI. It's worth noting that four of the ten most valuable U23 players in MLS are currently on New York City FC.
Unfortunately, youth often brings inexperience, which has been evident in the frustrating season and a half since Nick Cushing took over. It's anticipated that some of these issues will be addressed moving forward. However, in a league as competitive as MLS, it's crucial to maximize value in order to contend for championships. If Santi Rodriguez and Talles Magno become available to be bought down from their DP contracts, it would benefit the club to acquire some much-needed veteran leadership. However, it would be premature to label the club's efforts as unambitious. The prospect of seeing the young pigeons take flight is undeniably exciting.
NicoTheBold: “Have you heard anything about when Maxi will return, and what impact do you think he'll have on the team's results when he's back?”
JE: ACL injuries pose significant challenges, particularly for athletes approaching their late thirties. While some players have managed to return to the field within six months post-surgery, others endure a recovery period that spans up to two years. It's difficult to anticipate Maxi's contribution this season, given the uncertainty surrounding his rehabilitation. However, if he can make a comeback sometime during the summer and provide 20-30 minutes off the bench, it would greatly benefit the team, which currently has a void of experienced leadership on the field.
Andy: “Why would the Front Office drop Blitzkrieg Bop from the goal celebration? Hearing the fans yell "Hey, ho let's go!" after a goal had become a tradition and part of the fabric of the club. With the pending move to Queens, not to mention all of the matches at Citi Field, having a connection to a Queens institution like the Ramones seemed like a smart move.”
JE: After some investigation, I discovered that there's a rivalry between fans of the Ramones and fans of the Rolling Stones. Given that John Stones plays for Manchester City, it's quite possible that "Blitzkrieg Bop" was a casualty of CFG synergy. ❧
Image: Andre Beer, Portrait of a Racing Pigeon
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