Pigeon Post: Cushing's Leash Edition
Y'all got some feelings about Nick Cushing and we are here to help you process them as NYCFC finishes their preseason at Coachella.
Quezingtonthe3rd: Why are we letting the MLS Next Pro Golden Boot leave when we’re lacking in that department?
Tactics: MD Myers' transfer from NYCFC2 to Charleston Battery results from MLS roster construction rules. The latter part of a 30-man MLS roster is reserved for Homegrown deals and veteran minimums, which don't align with players who don't meet those criteria. In 2024, USL Championship teams can offer more playing time and competitive pay compared to certain positions on MLS rosters.
As MLS Next Pro enters its third season, its competitive level becomes increasingly apparent. There's potential for it to eventually surpass the prestige of USL teams, serving as a direct pathway to MLS first teams. In a more traditional pyramid league setup, players like The Doctor might have been on long-term contracts with NYCFC (or any other team), being loaned to clubs like Charleston.
Paul: There's also the reality of the striker position in MLS. While Myers was undoubtedly a solid striker in MLS Next Pro, he didn't reach elite status. Even top-tier MLSNP strikers like Jacen Russell-Rowe are, at best, considered players for the back of the bench with a lot of potential upside. Myers doesn't match up with the likes of Bakar or even Gabe Segal. In a landscape where players like Jovan Mijatović might be making eight figures, it's a challenging proposition.
In my personal view, MD Myers was a commendable striker in MLSNP, but he wasn't the kind of player who could single-handedly carry his team to victory. To transition to MLS, he would need to become that impactful player. NYCFC wasn't prepared to offer him a first-team contract while he worked on that transition. The move makes sense for him and ultimately makes sense for the team. It’s a business.
Ian: How confident are you guys in the goalkeeping situation? Freese looked solid to close but is he great? It seems to me that almost every MLS Cup winner has a great MLS Keeper, and can Freese be that?
Kevin: I'll take a definitive stance here and firmly straddle the fence on Matt Freese. He appears to have the potential to become a high-level shot-stopper, but we require a more extensive sample size to ascertain if these qualities translate consistently. With fewer than 2,000 MLS minutes in his career, and the majority being sporadic, the final stretch of 2023 marks the only period of consistent playing time for Freese.
In 2023, Freese's +0.14 PSxG/90 ranked 8th in MLS according to FBref, showcasing his ability to convert tools into production. However, this figure becomes less optimistic when considering that Freese faced the worst shot quality (0.20 PSxG/SoT) in the entirety of the six seasons of MLS data available on FBref. Nonetheless, with 2024 marking his first season as a full-time starter at 25 years old, the upcoming campaign will provide a more extensive sample to determine if he can transition from a solid to a great shot-stopper, especially with his new contract potentially solidifying his role as the unquestioned starter.
While Freese may compromise NYCFC's build-up play due to being less proficient than Barraza as a distributor, his primary role as a goalkeeper is to prevent goals, an area where he outshines Barraza. NYCFC must weigh these trade-offs when deciding if Freese is the long-term choice.
Even if Freese turns out to be a good but not great keeper, it may not hinder NYCFC's MLS Cup aspirations. Teams like 2022 LAFC, 2023 FC Cincinnati, and Columbus Crew reached significant heights with -0.07, -0.03, and -0.05 PSxG/90, respectively. While elite shot-stopping is valuable, a high-level defense can compensate for average shot-stopping capabilities. In listing concerns that could impede NYCFC's return to MLS elite status, having Matt Freese as an elite goalkeeper doesn't rank high on my list.
Don Fabio Foreign: How long is Cushing’s leash?
Alec: Cushing's historically long leash suggests widespread belief, from Nick Cushing to the front office and CFG headquarters, in the team's current playing style. Despite numerous excuses, such as starting the previous season without a striker, the narrative from executives emphasized the team's overall good performance and unfortunate luck, contributing to Cushing retaining his job. I have reservations about Cushing's style, roster choices, and starting XI decisions, particularly in matches against the Red Bulls and Cincinnati last season. While CFG's substantial investment in this transfer window signals faith in the rebuild project, it also implies the end of last season's excuses. The duration of Cushing's tenure remains uncertain, but I anticipate it being shorter than before, with constant scrutiny from the outset about the team meeting expected results.
Stephen Bell: I can’t root against my team but how bad do things have to get, after last season out of the playoffs, for Cushing to lose the job?
Alec: It’s stupid to root against your own team based on your hatred of a manager. If we win, it’s good. If we lose, he’s gone. So it’s a win/win situation.
JCMore: At what point in the season will fans start calling for Cushing’s head, and at what point will CFG finally drop the knife?
Kevin: Immediately. Fans will be calling for Cushing’s head immediately. Fans were already calling for his head last season. The 2023 campaign did little to instill confidence among even the more level-headed supporters. Many have made up their minds about Cushing, deeming him insufficient, and the slightest hint of adversity may transform scattered calls for change into a unified chorus.
City Football Group appears to grant a longer leash than the fanbase, and thank god for that. Imagine the job security of a soccer coach if decisions were made akin to Joaquin Phoenix in The Gladiator. Regardless, there is an expectation for success this season. The failure of 2023 is more attributable to the roster build than any coaching decisions Cushing made, and David Lee might even admit that himself if you gave him truth serum. The wrongs appear to have been righted for 2024. The team is genuinely legit, and Cushing now possesses all the tools for success.
It’s time to shit or get off the can as they say. I anticipate Cushing having around 16 games, roughly half the season through May, coinciding with a two-week break at the end of the European season. Hopefully, NYCFC comes out of the gates hot and we don’t have to worry about it, but if not, that’s when I’d start to wonder if a change is coming.
Gotham Gator: At the conclusion of camp in Coachella, should the players retreat to the desert to erect and set fire to a giant human figure? And if so, should it be an effigy of Nick Cushing?
Tactics: Cushing has overseen 64 games in all competitions for NYCFC, and it's acknowledged that he hasn't consistently upheld the standards set by previous managers such as Vieira, Torrent, or Deila. However, it's essential to consider the distinct circumstances he faced compared to his predecessors. To evaluate aspects more directly under the Englishman's control, let's adopt a rubric suggested by American Soccer Analysis’ Kier Doyle:
Quality of Press: Needs Improvement
Buildup Style: Maintain CFG Standards
Defensive Transitions: Use All Subs
Set Piece Quality: Get Vartughian in the Lab
From a logistical standpoint, if a managerial change were to happen in-season, it would likely occur during the first international break in June. This timing would allow the club to explore potential managers in the European carousel, a strategy they have employed before. By that stage, the team would have played 16 games, providing a substantial sample size to assess Cushing based on the rubric mentioned above. However, it's important to note that NYCFC typically does not adopt a style of firing managers in-season.
Justin: It's worth remembering that Dome Torrent was in the hot seat in April 2019 when NYCFC failed to secure a victory in the initial games of the season, compounded by the absence of a striker to replace David Villa. Comparatively, Cushing's current roster is notably stronger, and early-season difficulties might raise concerns about his tenure. Opting for a change in the spring aligns well with the opportunity to secure a European-based coach. However, a lot will have to go wrong for that to happen.
Don Fabio Foreign: Who has a breakout season that a casual fan might not know?
Alec: I expect Mounsef, if regularly starting, to score 12-15 goals this season. Despite not being an unknown player to casual fans, Mounsef faced criticism for missed chances last season. Yet, his underlying statistics are impressive, boasting a .58 npxG on 3.22 shots per game, putting him on pace to be the second-highest chance-generating striker in MLS over the games he played. He has much to prove this season, and I believe he will enjoy significant success with adequate playing time. However, considering the substantial investment, I anticipate Jovan Mijatović will secure the majority of minutes at the striker position.
Danny B: Who’s our best player?
Alec: [Insert Big Bird GIF here]
Paul: Although my love for Keaton is well-known, I'd like to present a different perspective. The reality is that no one can definitively identify our best player. There are 7 or 8 individuals who could stake a claim to that title, and based on last season, it's challenging to single out one player. The introduction of a new transfer could potentially elevate someone head and shoulders above the rest.
The key for this year is to witness significant strides from players. Talles has the potential to become one of the league's best wingers if he maintains focus, intensity, and consistency. Santi Rodriguez could emerge as the team's talisman if he stays focused and keeps himself engaged in the game. Mounsef Bakrar could contend for the Golden Boot if he capitalizes on his xG and consistently finds the back of the net. Sands might secure a spot in the Olympic team by adding an offensive dimension to his game. The possibilities are diverse, and this season holds the promise of notable advancements from various players.
Who’s got it in them?
Pete: What additions does David Lee need to make this window and in the summer window in order for NYCFC to make a deep run in multiple competitions?
Alec: If you're David Lee evaluating this roster, there's ample reason for satisfaction heading into the season. Numerous factors fuel optimism for the club's performance in the regular season, Leagues Cup, playoffs, and potentially the Open Cup. The immediate focus on strengthening depth during this window was evident, particularly in securing a striker (Mijatovic) and a center-back (Tanasijević). The return of Perea added depth to an already robust midfield, while the acquisitions of Ojeda and Wolf brought attacking flair. These signings reinforce an already impressive lineup on paper, one that began to gel towards the end of the previous season, as reflected in our Noché D’or win against Inter Miami. This window has the potential to be one of David Lee's best, with additions that make the team immediately competitive. The only area of uncertainty lies in our full-back positions, particularly at left-back, where I would welcome further investment. Otherwise, it's challenging to find critiques for the moves made during this window.
Andy Truschinski: What are the most notable takes from these open forum stadium certification sessions?
Chris: Honestly, there haven't been any significant controversies emerging from the stadium's public review process (ULURP), and this is undoubtedly a positive development. Large projects, especially in the context of New York City, often face substantial criticism and negative publicity. However, the prevailing sentiment has been overwhelmingly supportive of the project. While those who have spoken out against the project have generally made solid points, they have been in a significant minority.
This positive reception can be attributed, in part, to the substantial economic and social benefits the project promises to deliver. Additionally, the development essentially involves creating an entirely new neighborhood, minimizing opposition from existing residents who might be affected by changes.
Nevertheless, the prolonged delay in securing a binding parking agreement with the Mets is a notable and somewhat frustrating aspect. Despite having a signed memorandum of understanding in place for nearly fifteen months, finalizing the parking arrangement has proven to be time-consuming. Fortunately, this delay is not anticipated to impede stadium progress, as the development team has contingency plans in case the agreement falls through. It's worth noting that Steve Cohen, the owner of the Mets, may face diminishing leverage if he continues to hold the parking arrangement hostage, especially considering the potential impact on his casino ambitions and the need for support from local NYC politicians.
Phil: What tactical changes do you think needs to be made in order for NYCFC to score more goals this year?
Tactics: More final third pressing, better wingback and winger pairing, and set piece luck. Also fielding an actual No. 9 at the position, that’ll help.
Wolfehr: What are your thoughts on the roster as it stands today? Can you provide some insight into the new signings and how they might be used?
Justin: It's evident that NYCFC has significantly improved and deepened its roster. Ojeda adds a direct wing option, providing a valuable contrast to Talles and Julian Fernandez's tendency to cut inside. Hannes Wolf appears to be a suitable replacement for Matias Pelligrini, bringing defensive qualities as a winger and potential contributions to the central midfield. Strahinja Tanasijević's arrival bolsters the back line, offering versatility in both center-back and right-back positions.
The primary question mark revolves around the left side of the defense. While Kevin O'Toole performed adequately as a spot starter last year, he needs to demonstrate that he can be more than that. If Christian McFarlane is ready for significant minutes, that would be a positive shift, signaling a departure from NYCFC's past struggles in nurturing homegrown talent. Risa could be an option, but considering he is the only left-footed center back on the roster, it seems less likely.
Gotham Gator: Should we take comfort in the finish we had toward the end of the season - after our summer transfers had settled in? Or, should we believe that more help is still needed? 15 points in our last 8 games is solid, but it was not the stiffest competition.
Chris: We absolutely should asterisk the run of form the team had considering the competition and the home/away split that the schedule held. However, there's also merit in finding comfort in the strong finish, particularly notable among newer signings and players reverting to more comfortable roles. **COUGH** Talles Magno **COUGH**.
As I mentioned on last week’s episode of Blue City Radio, the anticipation for the team's progress is palpable, even without factoring in the influx of new talent still expected this offseason. Numerous players vying for substantial minutes for NYCFC now have a full offseason to 1) assimilate into Nick Cushing's system and 2) develop cohesion with their teammates. Consider the following players, excluding any new transfers-in:
GK: Matt Freese - First full offseason as the starting keeper for NYCFC
CB: Birk Risa - First full offseason with NYCFC
RB: Mitja Ilenic - First full offseason with NYCFC
DM: James Sands - First full offseason with NYCFC since returning from Rangers
DM: Andres Perea - First full offseason with NYCFC
DM: Keaton Parks - First full injury-free offseason with NYCFC since 2020-2021
CAM: Santiago Rodriguez - First full offseason with NYCFC since 2021-2022
Striker: Mounsef Bakrar - First full offseason with NYCFC
RW: Julian Fernandez - First full offseason with NYCFC
Winger: Alonso Martinez - First full offseason with NYCFC
LW: Talles Magno - Full offseason training as a winger, not a striker
The potential for these players to gel, and understand each other's movements, passing preferences, and defensive coverages is immense. The late-season performances hinted at the positive impact of more time together, and the hope is that this upward trajectory continues into the 2024 season.
Splizzington: Will Maxi be better used in full 90 minutes or be subbed out early in most games to preserve his health? Does him coming out early alter tactics too drastically for such a young team?
Paul: The images of a joyful Maxi running on the field without a brace or crutches certainly brightened up the preseason. It’s hard to know how quickly Maxi will be back. While the initial projections suggested a possible return as early as April, but knee injuries are tricky and Maxi is old.
If he does come back, it probably won’t be as a 90-minute player. Building up his fitness and adapting to a different on-field role will be essential, requiring a shift from the accustomed style he has showcased throughout his storied career. Nonetheless, his wealth of experience becomes invaluable when chasing points or closing out a game. He’s been around enough to fit into any sort of tactical instruction. ❧
Image: Anton van Dalen, The Pigeon Car
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Great read. Thanks for everything you do.
I don't exactly hate Cushing, I was asking more from the point of view: Like what could this guy do to get fired if he wasn't fired last year. I guess the team is expected to win more this year based on the roster upgrade. How would you even measure the threshold of institutional expectations in such an opaque organization?