Pascal’s Wager
The story of how playing without a left back for two months forced Jansen to build around Justin Haak—a patch job that eventually became stability for a much-improved NYCFC defensive line.
On April 6, New York City Football Club was struggling in the first half against Minnesota United. The Loons, one of the revelations of the 2025 season, had climbed the Supporters’ Shield table with a simple and predictable formula: they packed in their defense. Then, they exploded forward with Tani Oluwaseyi and Kelvin Yeboah, threatening the counter or drawing set pieces against defenses that were too apathetic in transition.
Apathetic was exactly how New York City FC appeared when Oluwaseyi, the St. John’s alum, scored a goal in the first minute on Minnesota’s first opportunity in transition. Midfielder Will Trapp followed 28 minutes later with a set-piece goal off a corner after Julián Fernández fell asleep at the edge of the penalty box.
At that point, Pascal Jansen had seen enough. Now chasing two goals, the Dutchman didn’t wait for halftime to make changes to a flaccid NYCFC attack. With Mounsef Bakrar subbing on at the 40th minute, Jansen added a second striker and completely altered the shape in the final half-hour by substituting defender Mitja Ilenič for extra attacker Agustin Ojeda.
Dismissing his unwavering commitment to a 4-2-3-1 played a pivotal role in shifting the momentum in the second half. Jansen sacrificed fullbacks to change the shape to an aggressive 3-2-3-2 with a striker pair and attacking wingers. Keaton Parks eventually cracked the Minnesota bunker with a late goal, and NYCFC were only a missed Alonso Martínez penalty away from reclaiming a share of the points. Pascal’s wager had nearly paid off.
Parks may have scored the goal, but it was the three-man defensive line, led by captain Thiago Martins in the middle, that held everything together in the back. NYCFC’s near-comeback spoke to the team’s resilience, driven in large part by Thiago’s work as a sweeper. His ability to neutralize Minnesota’s forwards kept the Loons from putting the game out of reach. The shape change that forgoed fullbacks provided ample gaps beyond the wingers for Oluwaseyi and Yeboah to exploit and increased Thiago’s defending burden. His challenge intensified more as outside centerbacks Strahinja Tanasijević and Kevin O’Toole, who had pinched in from left back, sought space to advance and bolster NYCFC’s desperate attack that needed two goals.
If any defender in MLS is up to the challenge of single-handedly defending against the league’s best counterattacks, it is Thiago Martins. The Brazilian centerback is not only one of the fastest outfield players in MLS, but he’s arguably the fastest defender in the league. Even when the Loons exploited Tanasijević and O’Toole’s positioning and got the ball behind them, he was always swift enough to catch up, neutralizing the Minnesota counterattack by forcing Oluwaseyi and Yeboah out wide.
While Pigeons did not secure any points, Jansen exhibited skill in adapting to the game and maximizing his players’ strengths. Jansen’s usage of Thiago Martins as a libero would be an essential building block in future tactics.
Shortly after the Minnesota game, Jansen demonstrated these abilities again to shore up the left side when Kevin O’Toole went down with an injury on April 26 against Toronto. Rookie backup left back Nico Cavallo appeared too inexperienced to garner starts, and U22 winger Agustín Ojeda had just entered Jansen’s doghouse due to inconsistent play.
Entering May, the club had more losses than wins and was out of the playoff picture. According to American Soccer Analysis, they ranked seventh worst in the league in Expected Points. The defense was leaking goals, and no one but Alonso Martinez seemed capable of contributing offensively. MLS analyst Matthew Doyle provided an accurate assessment at the time, stating that “[NYCFC] really hit it out of the park on Alonso Martinez, and on not much else.”
With a congested schedule featuring at least eight fixtures in May, how Jansen attempted to address the left side of NYCFC’s shape had the potential to make or break the season. It was at this point that NYCFC’s fortunes began to shift when the Dutchman decided to forsake his left back and revert to a 3 ATB formation.
Martins once again helmed the center, flanked this time by two homegrown players: Justin Haak, who, like in 2024, had beaten out Birk Risa and his TAM contract to secure the left centerback position, and Tayvon Gray, who, after dealing with injury issues, had finally returned to the lineup following right back Mitja Ilenič’s fitness struggles. Both Haak and Gray are unique talents who, at times in their careers, have struggled to find their ideal roles within the squad.
For Haak, the Brooklyn-born defensive midfielder, the primary barrier to playing time was Sands, who occupied a higher position on the depth chart. In 2023 and 2024, much of his playing time came as a result of injuries and a shift in his position to left centerback. Despite the challenges of being a right-footed defender on the left side, Haak demonstrated an ability to progress the ball, with only Moralez having more progressive passes this year. He also showcased a poise on the defensive line that sometimes eluded Risa, who has battled both inconsistency and injuries during his tenure at New York City.
Gray, on the right side, combines a Bronx never-back-down swagger with the ability to track down even the fastest wingers, along with elite one-on-one defending that makes him arguably the best defensive fullback in the league. While his defensive skills are undeniable, questions have always lingered about his fit on the offensive side of the pitch. A couple of inches taller, and he would likely be one of the best center backs in the league. Although he made significant strides offensively, tallying seven assists last season, he is not a player who terrifies opponents when attacking down the endline. This makes the outside center back position in a back three a more natural fit for him.
The Haak-Martins-Gray back three made its debut on May 4 against FC Cincinnati. However, Jansen couldn’t simply replicate the same tactics against Minnesota. With the Pigeons chasing two goals against the Loons, Jansen’s tactics were justifiably aggressive given the game state. A more balanced and solid setup was needed if NYCFC wanted to use this approach as a primary tactic.
While in possession, the back three felt familiar for NYCFC. Even in their 4-2-3-1 formation, Jansen had instilled the principle of fluidity with the fullbacks playing in tandem. When one fullback made an attacking run, the other would stay back to form a back three with the two center backs. The challenge for NYCFC in this shape lay on the defensive side. Jansen needed to determine how to solidify the back line when Cincinnati had possession of the ball.
For this role, Jansen conscripted Hannes Wolf as a left wingback, and the Austrian proved key to making the setup work. With Ojeda in the doghouse, the left-footed Wolf moved from his usual inverted position on the right wing to accommodate Fernandez, whose principal asset is his ability to cut inside and unleash powerful shots with his left peg.
Offensively, Wolf has demonstrated an aptitude for playing on either side, showcasing his ability to reach the end line, cut inside, and even move into central midfield. His work rate and ability to cover ground have quietly made him a key piece of NYCFC’s defense — qualities that have only grown in importance as Moralez’s age has started to show.
In this system, while Wolf primarily focused on the offensive end, he hustled back from his wing position to temporarily form a back four when the Knifey Lions had the ball, taking away valuable space for the Cincinnati attack.
The second adjustment was in midfield. Instead of deploying a strike pair, Jansen arranged a box midfield with Andres Perea and Moralez in front of Jonny Shore and Parks. This configuration provided a numerical advantage against Cincinnati’s three-man midfield, which was exploited early on when Keaton Parks intercepted a pass and quickly played the ball wide into space behind Cincinnati’s wingback, eventually leading to Fernandez’s goal in the 9th minute.
However, NYCFC was unable to maintain this setup for the entire game. After Parks went down injured, Haak stepped into midfield, and Risa filled his spot in the back line. Cincinnati came out strong after the break, leading Jansen to bring on left back Cavallo for Perea in the 50th minute — a move that pushed Wolf higher up the pitch. In the end, Fernandez’s early goal held up, sealing a vital home win over one of the league’s top sides.
However, the game presented challenges for Jansen. While NYCFC looked especially sharp in the first 26 minutes with Parks on the pitch, the match began to level out once Cincinnati started exploiting the space behind Wolf in transition. Although the Cavallo substitution aimed to address this gap, the rookie appeared shaky at times. Adding the left back came at the cost of a midfielder, which meant that NYCFC lost their numerical advantage in midfield. It was also not ideal for NYCFC, who struggled to find goalscoring from players other than Alonso Martinez early in the season, to convert one of their best attackers into a pseudo-defender, even if he possessed the necessary skill set.
So Pascal went back to the drawing board and came up with a system built around Haak’s versatility. At the start of 2025, Haak had been splitting time between defensive midfield and centerback. Although he had grown weary of answering the same question about which position he preferred after every game and at every press conference, his ability to play both positions significantly contributed to him being the only player to start all 20 games this season for NYCFC. Haak often shifted between the two roles within the same match, allowing NYCFC the opportunity to change shape without needing to make a substitution.
That flexibility was on display again on May 14, when Jansen started Risa at left back alongside Haak, Martins, and Gray in a midweek road match against D.C. United. On paper, the lineup was a standard 4-2-3-1 and seemed like a straightforward move. O’Toole was injured and Cavallo was not ready to start, so Risa was the next man up, albeit out of position. But it was more complex than that. In defense, NYCFC operated with a back four out of possession. Risa added to the defensive solidity in ways that Cavallo could not, while also relieving Wolf of the need to track the full length of the field.
The real surprise tweak occurred when NYCFC was in possession. Risa, not a significant overlapping threat, formed a back three with Martins and Gray, while Haak pushed up into the midfield. With Haak advancing, the holding midfielder on the left, in this case Perea, was able to make runs into the left attacking half-space. Jansen had effectively devised a way to play without a traditional left back, enhancing NYCFC’s attack and creating numerical overload in midfield without actually needing a fourth defender.
And it has remained NYCFC’s primary tactic ever since. While the midfield shape has shifted at times, Tanasijević has occasionally stepped in for Gray, and O’Toole has returned from injury, NYCFC is still playing without a left back, and Haak is still stepping into the midfield from the backline.
The Minnesota game could be a pivotal turning point for NYCFC’s season. The underlying statistics indicate that one of the league’s worst defenses through the first seven games has transformed into one of the best. Since April 7, NYCFC now leads the league in Goals Allowed per game, with its expected Goals Against (xGA) improving from 22nd to 8th.
The return of American hero Matt Freese to form certainly bolsters these numbers, but that only explains the overperformance. Freese’s contributions do not directly affect the improved xGA. Instead, NYCFC’s defense has simply become more effective, thanks in large part to Pascal’s tactical adjustments. He’s adapted the system to fit the players he has, building around Martins, Haak, and Wolf — who has scored five goals in his last five games — while still holding onto his core principles of flexibility and fluidity, even as the formation has evolved.
If you told most people that NYCFC would still be in the playoff picture after starting the season with a weaker roster than in 2024, forcing 38-year-old Maxi Moralez to play over 90 percent of available minutes while losing their three best players — Keaton Parks, the best American midfielder in MLS to injury; Matt Freese and Alonso Martinez, the best American goalkeeper in MLS and the only player on the roster who can consistently score goals to the Gold Cup— they would probably have laughed in your face.
Yet here we are. Jansen has managed to keep a limping, deeply flawed NYCFC above the playoff line, mainly due to his creative tactics. He has designed a system around Justin Haak, a homegrown player who was an afterthought until last fall.
None of this changes the fact that the club is wildy inconsistently from game-to-game, the roster still has significant holes that David Lee needs to fix with a DP or two, Moralez still has a date of birth from the 1980s, and the offense still has substantial issues consistently creating scoring opportunities with Ojeda and Fernandez needing to show more improvement.
But Jansen is at least attempting to address the issues within his control creatively, and that’s all you can ask for: a manager who has a squad punching above its weight. ❧
Image: Francisco de Goya, Still Life with Golden Bream
Spot on. And I keep thinking about the possibilities if we suddenly get healthy now that we have Nicolás Fernández coming in. Filling that hole is really going to make a difference.
Great analysis! Thanks!