O Captain, My Captain

Thiago Martins didn’t make the trip to Vancouver as the Whitecaps dismantled everything he usually holds together.

With Thiago Martins, New York City Football Club has a defense. Without him, the Vancouver Whitecaps had a field day. The 2-0 road defeat continued a humbling stretch for the Pigeons while serving as a stark reminder of Martins’ impact. New York City concedes 14.9% more expected goals (xG) per 96 minutes without their captain on the pitch.

On-off metrics are not the most reliable statistics in soccer. They’re noisy. The game has too many variables to distill a player’s impact from performance when he is on vs. off the field. Finding a signal in all that noise requires a large sample size, and perhaps a bit of intuition.

In this instance, everyone already knows NYCFC’s defense is significantly better with Martins in central defense. Putting a number on how much better is the hard part. But anyone who watched NYCFC play the Vancouver Whitecaps would feel justified in saying that 14.9% increase underestimates his positive impact.

And if you recalculated that metric after the loss to Vancouver, they would be right. Martins’ xGA on/off statistic jumped all the way up to 20.7% – remember that thing we said about sample size?– after manager Jesper Sørensen’s attack curbstomped Pascal Jansen’s defense to the tune of 3.36 xG in his absence. The designated player (DP) center back missed the game with a leg injury, and the ensuing defensive performance will go down in the annals of NYCFC history as the 7th-worst all-time by conceded xG.

Most single-game xG conceded by NYCFC in team history. Data: American Soccer Analysis

The Whitecaps’ attacking rotations ultimately proved too much for the Pigeons to handle. With New York City fullbacks Kevin O’Toole and Tayvon Gray occupied by Vancouver’s wide attackers, usually left winger Cheikh Sabaly and right back Édier Ocampo, defensive midfielder Aidan O’Neill, and the central defense partnership of Kai Trewin and Raul Gustavo were supposed to shield the middle. Emphasis on the supposed to.

Midfielder Jeevan Badwal pushed up into the frontline and brought O’Neill along with him, regularly turning Jansen’s intended 4-1-3-2 high block into a 5-oh my god no one is in midfield-3-2 defensive shape. Trewin and Gustavo had inklings to track the Whitecaps’ attacking duo of Thomas Müller and Brian White between the lines, but made a habit of dropping off upon the first pass that broke pressure.

With space in between the lines ripe for the taking, Vancouver confused New York City’s marking further by rotating attackers left to right, up and down, and vice versa. Jansen ultimately dropped Maxi Moralez out of the defensive front two and sat him alongside Keaton Parks, making it more difficult for the Whitecaps to play into their defensive midfield combination of Sebastian Berhalter and Andrés Cubas. That tactical tweak, along with a renewed pressing aggression coming out of halftime, gave the Pigeons their steadiest 20 minutes of the game.

However, Sørensen nullified any prospect of a return to respectability when he brought on wingers Emmanuel Sabbi and Bruno Caicedo in the 64th minute. Fresh pace on the flanks gave NYCFC a new danger to worry about. Defensive lapses are rare for Gray, but Caicedo found space behind and beat him on a cutback before crossing in for White’s 87th-minute goal after setting it up with a dribble to the endline on the possession prior.

White scoring the goal that secured the Whitecaps’ victory is poetic justice. The primary antagonist to New York City’s defense all game, he also earned the foul that led to Laborda’s set-piece goal from Sebastian Berhalter’s delivery right before halftime. The American striker generated 12 shots and a breathtaking 2.22 xG, far and away more than any other player against NYC in a single game and 8th-most in the history of the American Soccer Analysis database¹. Despite the nuance of Sørensen’s attack, White didn’t need much finesse to exploit the New York City central defense. Bludgeoning them worked just fine, and White had his way in 1v1s, particularly picking on Trewin throughout the game.

Having Martins on the field would not have been enough to turn this game into a good defensive performance, but it’s fair to say he would have handled these critical 1v1s with White better. Martins leads all Major League Soccer center backs in cumulative goals subtracted (g-), a methodology that allocates team goals added (g+) to individuals, since he joined the team in 2022 and is 5th in defensive net g+. He cleans up messes in the back and gives his team a puncher’s chance even when the defense struggles.

Luckily, Jansen still had goalkeeper Matt Freese on the pitch, and he’s another one of those guys who can singlehandedly keep New York City in a game. Freese did so again vs. Vancouver, making 8 saves to keep it a one-goal game until White finally had enough. Even the best security blankets are permeable when battered like Freese was, and clean strikes from within 5 yards of goal will make shrapnel of any keeper.

Preventative medicine is the best medicine after all, and this game is a reminder of the obvious — NYCFC are way better at preventing chances with their captain shepherding the backline. We may just have been underestimating Martins’ impact. For a player whose DP contract designation often gets more discussion than his defense, New York City is lucky to have him at any price. ❧

Image: Joseph Mallard William Turner, Whalers

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