Children's Crusade

In the first edition of the playoff Hudson River Derby, Paul Harvey analyzes how team cohesion under Nick Cushing and Santiago Rodriguez's performance will be key to any Pigeon victory.

For the first time, archrivals New York City FC and their Jersey counterpart, Red Bull New York, face off in the playoffs. Both teams seek to secure a place in the conference finals after upsetting their Ohio opponents, following relatively disappointing seasons that either saw them miss the playoffs entirely or barely sneaking in.

When preseason predictions came out on MLSsoccer.com, the prognostication looked grim for both teams. The Red Bulls fared slightly better, with a broader spread of predictions among the 17 experts and an average of ninth in the East. New York City was more confidently placed in tenth. According to the experts, both teams would likely be on the outside of the playoffs looking in.

In large part, these picks were based on the experience of watching the 2023 season. Both teams underwent an unusual shift towards youth, pivoting away from the more balanced models that had brought success in the form of Supporters Shields and an MLS Cup trophy. Alan Hansen, who famously claimed, “You can’t win anything with kids!” would have been justified by the struggles of 2023, but just a year later, the approach seems to be paying off.

The Road To the Hudson River Derby

At one point in 2023, each team not only had the lowest average age in the league but also one of the lowest average ages in league history. When results were looking grim, New York City brought back club legend Maxi Moralez after a short stint in Argentina to help steady the ship. After a disappointing playoff exit, the Red Bulls brought in Swedish mainstay Emil Forsberg in the offseason to provide a steady veteran presence.

Turning to youth also meant dismantling the collective experience that had brought both teams success. Using collective passes shared among starters as a measure of team cohesion New York City peaked in 2021, followed by an injury-laden 2022 and the 2023 rebuild year. The rapid decline from NYCFC’s peak performance to their worst result since the expansion year illustrates just how disconnected the team had become. In 2024 Cushing’s commitment to a core group is paying off. He has kept the team together, getting his core group significant minutes in a way that has fostered increased connection as the team advances deeper into the postseason.

While the Red Bulls are not nearly as experienced together, the Red Bull global approach requires less understanding from players in lieu of buy-in and commitment to the high-octane pressing model. Regardless of the 11 players on the field, you can be quite certain how they are going to play.

One major difference between the Red Bulls and New York City FC is the level of responsibility borne by Santiago Rodriguez. Among the Red Bulls’ highest players by burden, none are as young as Rodriguez. Compared to other players of similar age around the league, Santi stands out in a league of his own.

The Red Bulls place the responsibility for their team’s offense on their older, more experienced players. Emil Forsberg, at 33, is the on-field leader of the Red Bulls, while Lewis Morgan and Dante Vanzeir are also key focal points of the squad. With a total possession value of 1.44 Burden per 96 minutes played, Rodriguez easily outpaces Forsberg’s 1.13. This disparity reflects the sheer importance of Santi’s play in determining the team’s direction. If he can find joy against his rival and dictate the game, it could be a good day for the boys in blue.

Cushing’s Core

The spine of the team is strong, with Keaton Parks and James Sands among the top active players in the league for passes played between them. Thiago Martins brings extensive experience with every possible backline option, serving as the emotional anchor of the entire team. Meanwhile, the relationship between Rodriguez and Moralez is vital for managing the complex movements required to break down opponents in the final third.

Cushing often faces criticism for his late and infrequent substitutions, as well as a general reluctance to tinker with the lineup as long as the team remains moderately successful. For example, Keaton Parks is written in pen as a starter despite a cool run of form late in the season—at least according to his usual standard. He tends to adopt a more conservative approach towards risk, but this long-term strategy has resulted in a well-connected starting lineup capable of punching above their relative talent weight.

All on the Line

The last time the two teams faced off, the Red Bulls were hammered at home, marking the low point of their season. Their players will be out for revenge, and the confines of Citi Field will provide ample opportunity to disrupt and attack the Pigeons.

It will be vital for New York City to leverage the chemistry they have developed over the past two years. Against Cincinnati, they struggled in both away matches to connect the midfield and the attack and to break out against the press without committing dangerous turnovers. Continued struggles could mean a short trip home.

There will likely be no surprises in the lineup. Cushing loves a little wrinkle—see Perea’s run out at left wing in the last Hudson River Derby—but he has achieved his best results with a consistent group and has spent the season building toward this moment. Cushing understands, as well as anyone, that you must stick with the team that got you here. ❧

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