I have always loved the World Cup. It has given me some of the best sports memories I've had as a fan of this game. On a warm night in Qatar, nearly four years ago, Argentina and France competed in one of the most exciting finals I have ever watched. It was the coronation of one of the greatest players of all time, Lionel Messi, and a breakout moment for one of the best players of this new generation, Kylian Mbappé.

But the more I examine it, the harder it is to ignore what surrounds it. Those same games were shadowed by Qatar's human rights record, the abuse of migrant workers, and corruption in FIFA's selection process. And while FIFA's president Gianni Infantino would prefer that critics "just focus on football," it is hard to ignore FIFA’s long history of complicity, and this was not the first time FIFA has looked the other way.

During the 1938 World Cup final in France, Benito Mussolini compelled the Italian team to give the fascist salute during their national anthem. After Italy won, Mussolini had the trophy brought to him. In 1978, Argentina hosted the tournament under a military junta that had overthrown Isabel Perón's elected government. This prompted boycott calls from nations and human rights groups who noted that detention centers operated within miles of the stadiums. The 2010 South African games drew allegations of bribery and pre-tournament match fixing. Those charges were among the findings that led to a US indictment of over two dozen FIFA executives in 2015. In 2018, the games in Russia followed the 2014 annexation of Crimea, with several governments and human rights groups calling for a boycott that never came.

FIFA has always chosen profit over principle. In 2026, that choice is playing out in American cities.

Beginning January 1, 2026, the US imposed complete or partial travel bans on 39 countries. Players from those nations remained exempt as per the law, but their fans were not. Two weeks later, the Trump administration suspended visa processing for another 75 countries, further narrowing the pool of fans who can travel. In December 2025, the State Department added a social media screening requirement for all ESTA applicants, covering five years of posts: anyone deemed to hold a hostile attitude toward the USA could be denied entry on that basis alone. This has already affected the games themselves. Africa's reigning Referee of the Year, Omar Arten, has been denied the ability to officiate at the tournament. The Trump administration has not cited his Somali nationality as the reason. It doesn't have to.

During the Concacaf Gold Cup and FIFA Club World Cup, both hosted in the US, ICE was reported outside stadiums attempting to identify and deport undocumented immigrants following matches. Meanwhile, President Trump has repeatedly invoked his authority to strip World Cup matches from cities he deems unsafe, using the tournament as a lever to force compliance with his immigration agenda. On Monday, right before President Trump fell asleep before 10 pm during Game 3 of the NBA Finals at Madison Square Garden, Border Czar Tom Homan announced an unprecedented surge of ICE officers into New York City, the host city of the final, responding to Governor Kathy Hochul's legislative efforts to shield residents from federal immigration enforcement.

On February 28, 2026, Trump initiated military action against Iran. Trump posted that he didn’t believe it was “appropriate” for Iran to attend, citing concerns for “their own life and safety,” a veiled threat from a sitting president toward a nation he had just attacked. Since then, Trump has allowed the Iranian national team to enter the US, but a number of team staff have been denied entry for “security reasons,” including the head of the federation, his deputy, and the team’s media director. The team itself has been required to base itself in Mexico, permitted to cross the border only the day before each match. And now, on the eve of the tournament, Trump has announced the reignition of military action against Iran following a failed ceasefire.

FIFA’s own mission statement calls for promoting football “in the light of its unifying, educational, cultural, and humanitarian values.” It is difficult to read that sentence in 2026 with a straight face.

Infantino’s relationship with Trump goes well beyond diplomatic courtesy. During the FIFA Club World Cup, Infantino handed Trump a medal on stage amid a victorious Chelsea squad as Chelsea captain Reece James lifted the trophy. It was later reported that FIFA gifted that trophy to the White House, and Chelsea received a replica.

During a meeting at the White House with Infantino in June of last year, Trump disparaged trans athletes’ participation in gendered competition, pressing a position FIFA’s governing body has historically avoided taking.

The most egregious appeasement came with an inaugural FIFA “Peace Prize,” given to quell Trump’s frustration at his inability to win the Nobel Peace Prize. This size-mandated prize marked a stark shift from the “let’s focus on football” mantra of the Qatar games to the geopolitical meddling of this one. The allegations of a quid pro quo hardened when, after the prize was awarded, a bribery case against FIFA was dropped at the behest of “a Trump official” in the Justice Department.

The US team and its federation have given fans their own reasons for pause. For years, the U.S. Soccer Federation has consistently drifted right, in part as a response to pressure from the more progressive U.S. Women’s National Team. Some players have leaned in. Others have been pulled along. Star player Christian Pulisic came under fire for doing the “Trump Dance” after scoring against Jamaica. Pulisic tried to walk it back, but former teammates were critical of the gesture.

Both Tim Weah and Weston McKennie were invited to the White House on June 18, 2025, as part of a Juventus delegation, where Trump, with the two USMNT players as a captive audience, held forth on Middle East policy, Joe Biden's "Auto-pen," the federal minimum wage, and the prospect of transgender athletes joining the Juventus team. McKennie and Weah seemed uninterested in the political theater.

Weah later said, “It was all a surprise to me…they told us we have to go…I had no choice. It was a bit weird…I’m not one for politics. I just want to play football, man.”

FIFA’s “forget about politics” posture has a simpler explanation: it is, at its core, a money-making operation, and has never been shy about using politics to protect its margins. While FIFA is registered as a not-for-profit organization, it makes billions off the World Cup. As outlined in the 2018 bid, tickets for the USA, Mexico, and Canada would average between $60 and $1,500. Tickets are averaging between $380–$4,150, nearly six times the original low-end estimate. The gap is so wide that U.S. lawmakers had to compel FIFA to honor the originally stated $60 floor. Those $60 tickets, where they exist at all, are vanishingly few. Less than three weeks from kickoff, New York Attorney General Letitia James and New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport announced a joint investigation into World Cup ticket pricing, stating that fans have been misled on pricing.

It’s hard to watch the game I love get swallowed by the politics of people I find reprehensible. And while it is equally irrational to believe that every place the World Cup will ever be hosted will share my values, I’m struggling to accept that it’s my country’s turn to contribute to this revolving door of moral bankruptcy. The governing body is corrupt, the host nation is involved in war crimes, and the team seems to have adopted Laura Ingraham’s “shut up and dribble” approach to politics, rather than oppose human rights violations done in the name of the badge it plays for. The US, under Trump, is murdering citizens on the street in major cities, conducting warrantless searches and seizures on people’s property, and creating an anti-immigrant policy and enforcement akin to that of the Third Reich.

So, while I will still watch the games, I cannot say I am excited to do it, and I find that sad. I love this sport. I love what it can be and what that night in Qatar was, briefly. But I’m struggling to root for my team, I’m struggling to be proud of my country, and right now I’m not sure those two things can be separated. ❧

Image: Edvard Munch, Melancholy

“The first goal in the game is a massive thing in our sport,” New York City Football Club head coach Pascal Jansen said after Sunday’s match against the Columbus Crew. He’d presumably admit the weight of front-running is even more important when you haven’t won in seven games, a stretch in which the Pigeons had the 8th-worst non-penalty expected goals (npxG) differential in Major League Soccer.

Needing a quick start to stem the tide against the Crew, Hannes Wolf scored early. Then he did it again five minutes later, and suddenly New York City had room to breathe. By the time Wolf scored his third goal in the 66th minute, completing the 4th open-play hat trick in team history, NYCFC had run far enough ahead of Columbus to secure the three points.

The shots (11 to 9) and xG (1.22 to 1.17) were fairly even across the 90 minutes, suggesting the 3-0 scoreline may flatter the performance. New York City displayed attacking creativity, particularly in an even game state, that had been missing in the loss to D.C. United. It wasn’t the comprehensive performance Jansen demands, but it was a start.

The Pigeons read the Crew defense well, identifying gaps and presenting different looks in the attack when Columbus head coach Henrik Rydström adjusted. Steven Zawadski and Rudy Camacho ostensibly marked the attacking front two of Nico Fernández Mercau and Maxi Moralez, but the Columbus central defenders were indecisive in how far to step off their line. When Zawadski and Camacho left the Argentine attackers to drop into space unmarked, New York City played directly to them from the backline with Dylan Chambost overloaded as the lone defensive midfielder. That combination generated the first goal. If the Crew center backs instead pursued Fernández and Moralez into midfield, NYCFC wingers Agustín Ojeda and Wolf ran into space behind. They offered a verticality that this attack sorely missed.

The hat trick was the headline, but Wolf’s off-ball movement was crucial to how NYCFC opened up those spaces in the attack. Columbus right back Steven Moreira tended to track his Austrian counterpart, and Wolf found opportunistic moments to pull him inside to create space for an attacking run from left back Nico Cavallo, who beat Columbus winger Max Arfsten up the flank regularly. The second goal showed it most clearly: cascading defensive breakdowns from the Crew conceded the channel to Cavallo and left Fernández unmarked on the underlap.

Chances were limited throughout, but even picking apart a defense that ranked 4th in MLS in xGA is a promising sign. The Crew’s possession-heavy style was also convenient for Jansen. It let him simplify the game plan, shore up the defensive structure, and choose when to push numbers forward.

The two early goals afforded Jansen the chance to lean into a counterattacking style. Columbus controlled 64% of possession from the 20th minute until half, but only generated 0.24 xG and 3 shots from it. Henrik Rydström’s team continued its possession binge into the second half, but the Crew’s intricate passing often couldn’t escape NYCFC’s collapsing defensive shape. The Pigeons were at their most vulnerable from 45’-60’, a stretch during which Columbus created 62.4% of their xG. The Pigeons survived the onslaught, though Jansen admitted his team was “lucky with that miss at the back post” on a Max Arfsten chance, the Crew’s biggest of the day and one that would have brought the score to 2-1.

Three days later, against Charlotte, the lineup and the story were the same: an early goal put NYCFC in control and allowed the Pigeons to come away with three points and their second road victory of the season. The key adjustment was pushing Cavallo much higher in possession, which allowed Wolf to tuck inside.

On the lone goal of the evening, Cavallo dragged Charlotte’s Nathan Byrne wide, and Wolf drew attention from right center back Morrison, opening a lane for Moralez to play over the top to Ojeda, who had drifted from the left to make the vertical run in the right channel. Some ball watching by left center back Tim Ream left Wolf unmarked in the middle, who promptly reversed to Fernández Mercau. The Argentine DP, isolated 1v1 against left back David Schnegg, cut inside and finished on his left foot.

Kristijan Kahlina’s handling error gifted Fernández Mercau the goal, but the sequence was still remarkable for the Pigeons. Every single player, fullbacks excluded, contributed to the beautiful 11-pass sequence through the middle of the field for a high-quality scoring opportunity on the doorstep of the goal. More importantly, scoring and gaining the lead before the 10-minute mark let NYCFC, knowing that Charlotte would have to chase, make the game ugly — a huge boon for a team on the road. The two sides barely combined for over 1 xG, and featured just as many yellow cards (9) as shots-on-target.

Luck and game state are variables that dramatically swing matches in soccer. New York City was a victim of both during their now-vanquished seven-game winless streak, but was aided by them in both games. Sometimes, those are the nudges teams need to elevate pedestrian performances into impressive results. They are also nudges that New York City should strive to become more resilient to, as their g+ differential ranking drops from 7th to 22nd/20th from even game states to losing/leading game states, respectively. For now, they just take the wins. The Pigeons needed something powerful to wash the sour taste of a nearly two-month winless streak from their mouths, and a pair of clean sheet victories, regardless of how you get there, is as close as you get to a fire hose. ❧

Image: Leonard Rosoman, A House Collapsing on Two Firemen, Shoe Lane, London, EC4

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world

William Butler Yeats

The May 3rd loss against D.C. United was one of the ugliest games that New York City Football Club has ever played. The fact that it happened on home soil made it more unpleasant; a team expected to dominate conceded an early goal and spent the remainder of the game struggling helplessly to overcome a defensive block. D.C. United isn’t a defensive powerhouse either, yet NYCFC created the season’s lowest expected goals (xG) total. This result follows an equally dismal game against CF Montréal, a team whose only other wins had come over rivals Red Bull.

This defeat marks a seven-game winless skid in the league, turning a promising start into a genuine concern. Pascal Jansen’s response has been to institute a game plan focused on controlling games and reducing downside risk, selecting personnel to match. It’s not an uncommon impulse; when each game is an opportunity to stop the bleeding and gain much-needed momentum, the appetite for risk vanishes first. NYCFC dominated possession and field tilt in the last two games in particular, but looked nowhere near creating a reasonable scoring chance.

Controlling games through possession is an established tactic, but it is far more common in Europe. MLS’s relative parity makes ball-dominant play harder to execute successfully. In recent years, many managers have come into the league expressing a desire to play with the ball, but often find that leads to stagnant attacking and killer transition opportunities for their opponents.

Atlanta egregiously followed up Tata Martino’s dominant run to open their time in MLS with the iron grip of Frank De Boer, who promptly led the team to a downfall that continues to this day. San Diego won the hearts of fans with their possession-dominant style in last year’s expansion season, but is falling apart this year as they control games but create few chances. One of the few exceptions to the rule, Wilfried Nancy managed to find that balance and turn a very controlled team into the best in MLS. He did it through the brilliance of Cucho Hernández, as well as some inspired movement out of the back line from players like Steven Moreira, creating danger from places the defense least expected. In doing so, he created cascading risks that required well-choreographed rotations, but his inability to replicate them at Celtic led to his firing.

This approach has led to problems at NYCFC as well. Despite boasting that he’d rather win games 5-4 than 1-0, Ronny Deila’s initial approach was to control the ball rather than take offensive risks. It took a player revolt for him to change his approach, and eventually, NYCFC won a championship by taking a backseat in possession. Nick Cushing never quite found a way out and was fired. There has to be a balance between players who try shit and those who are more consistently reliable, and Jansen has so far failed to find that balance in 2026.

Jansen’s turn toward conservatism and small-mindedness under pressure is most evident in his player selection. He repeatedly selects players who pose less risk to his possession-heavy approach, even though those same players can’t deliver danger when it’s needed. Three of the top-five performers by non-penalty xG per 96 minutes (npxG/96) are players he won’t start.

Chief among these choices is his reluctance to play Talles Magno. Magno came into the season adrift, returning from an extended loan to Corinthians without a clear path to his next career step. His status as a Designated Player meant that rostering Magno came with an opportunity cost. At the same time, the team reiterated its trust in him and stated that he would play a role this season. Despite that statement, Magno has yet to play more than 30 minutes of any league game he’s appeared in. Nonetheless, he’s performed well with two goals and a team-leading npxG/96 without any sort of positional consistency. Even after a U.S. Open Cup hat trick against Westchester SC, Jansen did not give him the start in the next Cup game. It’s clear that Jansen does not trust him, and while Magno earned a start against D.C. before a calf injury pulled him out, Jansen is unlikely to give him further leeway. He does not hustle like Hannes Wolf or Malachi Jones, and he takes far more risks as a dribbler and passer.

Seymour Reid, the only true center forward on the roster, also finds himself on the outside looking in. He has been disappointing over 103 substitute minutes this season, particularly against the Philadelphia Union, where he could not score on two breakaways (and on one, he never even got a shot off). He struggled in the Open Cup game against Westchester SC as well, disappearing for large portions of the game, not factoring aside from an early assist on a cutback pass. At the same time, he can break free at any moment, using his physicality and speed to challenge older and more experienced defenders. For a team that has no striker at all, he can keep back lines somewhat honest. The false 9 approach, which has been yielding diminishing returns, is not an effective substitute. Reid may not be the most polished striker, but he is still an 18-year-old learning to play professionally. He is one of the most promising young attackers in the league, and many MLS teams were willing to open the checkbook to pry him away from NYCFC this offseason. Each chance he receives is an investment in his development that can pay dividends down the road.

There’s no personnel decision more baffling than Jansen’s decision to bench Keaton Parks. At first, there were some questions about fitness, considering Parks is returning from surgery. That was put to rest when Parks confirmed to Trey Fillmore that Jansen prefers Kai Trewin and Aiden O’Neill as starters. Andrés Perea’s return and 36th-minute replacement of O’Neill showed Parks has fallen entirely off the holding midfield depth chart. Again, Parks is fundamentally a riskier player than the other options; he is a much riskier passer and dribbler, constantly trying to provoke pressure rather than simply make a safe pass and keep possession moving. His attacking runs do open up space that needs to be covered, and he lacks the pace to get back to help if things go awry.

This tactical cam replay captures Parks at his best, breaking the press with the vision to see spaces few other players see and the creativity to exploit them, all in three passes that end in a goal:

Jansen’s preferred midfield partnership of Trewin and O’Neill is a poor combination. Trewin’s inability to play central defense at an MLS level (where he has made crucial marking and defensive mistakes that have cost goals in multiple games) means that he must play midfield. O’Neill is a Jansen favorite but offers little beyond defensive work and safe possession play. The two create a conservative midfield that struggles to break lines with movement, ball carrying, or passing. While Perea can bring something different — finding space in the box with attacking runs — he cannot replicate Keaton’s exceptional passing and dribbling, nor is he as effective in the air. He covers more ground, appealing to Jansen’s conservative turn. Regardless, it’s not working. Over the last two games, NYCFC has looked incapable of generating quality chances, and it starts with the two below-average midfielders running the pivot.

To be fair, Parks, Magno, and Reid have not been perfect and in some games have not been good at all. At the same time, Jansen holds them to a standard no one else on the team shares. Man management is tricky, but punishing some players for mistakes while ignoring others, and failing to reward genuinely good play, is an approach that has a time limit. If you’re going to play favorites, you need to pick the right ones.

This was supposed to be the easiest stretch of the season, where New York City could build a substantial lead heading into the international break. Two consecutive home losses to struggling sides mean NYCFC is well below where they need to be to secure a home playoff spot. Instead, Pascal Jansen is choking it away. ❧

Image: Harry Clarke, A Descent into the Maelstrom

“You’re playing, and you think everything is going fine. Then one thing goes wrong. And then another. And another. You try to fight back. But the harder you fight, the deeper you sink. Until you can’t move, you can’t breathe, because you’re in over your head. Like quicksand.”

Keanu Reeves’ Shane Falco couldn’t have summarized it better. Psychological spirals just happen in sport sometimes, often randomly and without reason. If New York City Football Club were watching this scene from The Replacements right now, they’d be nodding their heads in understanding because they’re living it.

Through four games, the Pigeons looked like one of the league’s best with three wins and a draw. They’ve stumbled into quicksand since. NYCFC is now winless in six league games after a 1-0 road defeat to CF Montréal and have the 8th-worst expected goal differential (xGD) in Major League Soccer (MLS) during that stretch.

The loss is notable for how much deeper it pushes them into the muck, but by itself is unremarkable. Neither team could get into an offensive rhythm, as NYCFC and Montréal combined for a measly 1.46 expected goals (xG), the sixth-lowest mark of the 2026 MLS season.

Philippe Eullaffroy, Montréal’s interim head coach, tried to throw off New York City’s defense by regularly moving his fullbacks inside and his central midfielders outside. The Pigeon defense maintained its discipline despite the rotations, with one big exception that ultimately decided the game. Midfielder Matty Longstaff found space on the left flank to pick out a cross into the six-yard box towards Prince Owusu. The Ghanaian center forward big-brothered Kai Trewin, sparking Brian White-fueled post-traumatic stress disorder and giving Montréal an early lead that they would not relinquish.

Montréal only generated two shots from inside the box, but New York City’s attack failed to do any better. Montréal wingers pressed inside, freeing fullbacks Kevin O’Toole and Tayvon Gray on the flanks but only if NYCFC could move the ball quickly in and out of the midfield, which was the problem. The Pigeons controlled the game from 30’ to halftime, probing this weakness down the left flank, but overall lacked the connections to translate progressions into chances before Montréal could recover into its narrow defensive shape.

New York City finished with 5 shots, the lowest single-game total in team history. Moments of miscommunication or visible frustration were more common than chances. Head coach Pascal Jansen tried to put a jolt into his team with triple-barreled substitutions in the 65th minute, but any gains quickly short-circuited. Fighting to pull his team out of the quicksand, Gray only made them sink deeper. Two yellow cards within five minutes on Montréal winger Iván Jaime, the second after a misplaced pass of his own, resulted in an early shower for Gray and a man disadvantage that nullified any hope that NYC would get a result.

Desperate for a solution to this nightmare run, Jansen doesn’t seem to think the answer will come from the bench. No manager in MLS has rotated his starting eleven less. New York City’s 10 most common outfield starters have logged more combined starts and minutes than any team in MLS. Newcomer Arnau Farnos only cracked the starting lineup against Montréal due to a Hannes Wolf injury.

Jansen may be forced to go to his bench out of sheer desperation after the best four-game start in team history has collapsed into the worst ten-game start since 2015. Which stretch represents the true quality of NYCFC? The answer likely lies somewhere in between. Ten games into the season, statistics are becoming significant, and we can take stock of where they stand in MLS as the sample size smoothes out the extremes of red cards, penalties, and the like.

Those numbers indicate the Pigeons are fine. They sit somewhere in the middle of the pack in MLS, ranking 16th in npxG and 10th in npxGA. The defensive indicators align with the aggressive ethos NYCFC has pursued since its founding, outpacing the league average in both average defensive action height (how high the line is) and passes per defensive action (how active they are in defending).

Despite the pedestrian attack, New York City has maintained their style of play with the ball as well. The Pigeons sit comfortably in the top ten in possession (57.7%), field tilt, and passes per possession, indicators of extended ball control in the opponent’s half. The engine of that attack has been Nico Fernández Mercau, who ranks 33rd in npxG+xA and 22nd in offensive net goals added (g+) in MLS, according to American Soccer Analysis. Ironically, Fernández Mercau has been so good that he has singlehandedly elevated NYCFC’s “strikers” into the top ten of net g+ (offensive and defensive) within that position group.

Jansen could only hope that he had two Fernández’s. For as surprisingly good as he has been masquerading as a center forward, New York City could use him deeper to facilitate the offense. Instead, Point Maxi lives on, and while Moralez is still capable of moments of magic, he can’t carry this level of attacking burden at 39 years old like he once could. Moralez is trending towards his second consecutive negative season by net g+.

Aside from the attacking midfield group, an examination of net g+ rankings by position group indicates a strong spine. NYC’s center backs and defensive midfielders join the “strikers” (i.e., Fernández) as top ten units. Net g+ for the wide position groups, wingers, and fullbacks, is less optimistic. For a coach like Jansen who likes to concentrate attacks down the flanks, those units are obvious areas for improvement as they try to dig their way out of this rut by any means possible. Or maybe they just have to burn some incense and exorcise the bad spirits via the power of friendship.

Either way, Jansen certainly strives for his team to be better than fine, but he’d take it right now after NYC have taken two points from their last six games. Digging out of this funk is their priority for now. A Hudson River Derby win in the U.S. Open Cup goes a long way in getting New York City back on track, but the Pigeons must now carry those good vibes over into league play. Getting out of quicksand as deep as they’re in takes more than one game. Shane Falco‘s teammate Clifford Franklin said it best, “Aw, shit yeah. Quicksand’s a scary motha, man.” ❧

Image: Salvador Dalí, Remorse, or Sphinx Embedded in the Sand

The 4-4 draw between New York City Football Club and FC Cincinnati was a slap fight. But it was a stupid one. While the scoreline suggests this match may have been a swashbuckling contest between two high-powered attacks, it was actually a duel of defenses where each side slapped itself in the face as hard as it could until both inevitably collapsed.

Roman Celentano slapped first. The Cincinnati goalkeeper fumbled a cross from Aidan O’Neill right into the waiting feet of Nico Fernández Mercau for an easy rebound. But as bad as Celentano’s mistake was, the defenders in front of him responded with “hold my beer”. Head coach Pat Noonan deployed an aggressive man-marking tactic with defensive midfielder Samuel Gidi floating in and out of the backline. Gidi’s position fluctuated depending on the depth of Maxi Moralez and Fernández Mercau, shifting Cincinnati between a back three and a back four. But whatever formation they were in, the backline certainly wasn’t a line.

The Pigeons pulled Noonan’s defense apart as Cincinnati struggled to handle the simplest of rotations, but Cincinnati’s defensive woes were as much about personnel as system. Despite a decimated defense without Miles Robinson, Matt Miazga, and Nick Hagglund, Noonan pushed forward man-marking without all of his top three center backs. Noonan’s predicament worsened when the fourth center back on his depth chart, Teenage Hadebe, went off injured in the 24th minute.

Noonan had no choice but to wake up Alvis Powell from his nap to fill in. Like anyone disturbed from a deep slumber, the left defender made his head coach regret the audacity. Powell barely broke a jog. The culprit of several Cincinnati defensive breakdowns, Powell didn’t make it to the second half, substituted off after 23 minutes of apathetic play. The rest of Noonan’s defense were more willing participants in his man-marking scheme. They just did a bad job of it.

Eager to press forward, Cincinnati’s central defenders kept forgetting the other half of man-marking: tracking back. New York City got in behind the backline with ease, completing a season-high 14 passes into the final third from their own half, sixth-best in MLS this season. Before it was all said and done, Noonan tried four different iterations of a backline, but each provided a slap to the face of Cincinnati’s defense.

Where Cincinnati’s defensive woes were chronic, New York City’s were acute. Throughout the run of play, the Pigeons limited Cincinnati’s chances, holding the visitors to a pedestrian 11 shots and 0.98 non-penalty expected goals. But head coach Pascal Jansen’s team once again displayed their habit for mind-numbing defensive gaffes.

Rather than being the culmination of sustained attacking pressure, Cincinnati’s goals came from nowhere. The first came within seconds of a Cincinnati throw-in. With left back Kevin O’Toole out of position from the previous possession, right midfielder Ender Echenique fired a cross immediately into the box. Tom Barlow, the worst half of Cincinnati’s front two, had gotten goalside of defensive midfielder Kai Trewin and attracted central defender Thiago Martins. That left Kevin Denkey, the better half, completely unmarked for a simple volley.

Aidan O’Neill’s unnecessary foul on Evander handed them the second. New York City compounded his error by letting the subsequent free kick fall to the feet of Denkey. Andrei Chirila scored an absolute screamer for the third. But a makeshift lineup that receded in protection of a two-goal lead afforded Chirilla the space to do so, as the Pigeons conceded 63% of possession from 70’ onward. Kevin O’Toole then landed the knockout self slap. An innocuous sequence quickly escalated to an Evander nutmeg and a desperate lunge for redemption from the NYCFC fullback. Instead, O’Toole clumsily took out Evander from behind to give Cincinnati the equalizing penalty.

While NYCFC concedes xG in second-half stoppage time at a league-average rate, they’ve allowed the 3rd-best shot quality after the 90th minute in MLS. Giving away high-quality chances late in games can turn comfortable performances into dropped points, which the Pigeons have now done for the third consecutive home game. Two stoppage-time goals make this one worse than the draw versus St. Louis and the loss to Charlotte. For the 13th time in team history and only the 6th time at home, NYCFC conceded at least four goals. They have quality, but lurk on the edge of disaster at any minute. ❧

Image: Francisco Goya, Children Fighting Over Chestnuts

New York City Football Club has a box problem. Of the couple of thousand on-ball actions in every soccer game, it’s the ones closest to the goal that settle the score. The Pigeons are struggling to find an advantage in either box in 2026. Despite dominating shots and possession, New York City’s 2–1 home loss to Charlotte FC continued a trend that goes beyond mere fluctuations in finishing and shot-stopping.

The Pigeons are generating their worst goals-added (g+) differential in the penalty areas since 2015. They would post only their third negative in-box g+ differential in team history if the season were to end today. In-box g+ differential is less predictive than expected goals differential (xGD) or full-field g+ differential, but its relationship to points is steeper. Actions near the goal have an outsized impact on the outcome. Squandering opportunities in either the attacking or defending penalty area is a surefire way to pollute an otherwise strong performance. That is exactly what NYCFC did against Charlotte.

This game appeared firmly in NYCFC’s control, with Pascal Jansen quickly identifying the soft spot in Charlotte head coach Dean Smith’s 4-2-4 mid-block defensive shape. The space behind the wingers, particularly Wilfried Zaha, served as an avenue to build up through with Charlotte center backs Tim Ream and Morrison Agyemang reluctant to come off their line, allowing Nico Fernández Mercau and Maxi Moralez to drop into those wide midfield areas unmarked to receive directly from the backline. In contrast, Jansen’s wingers occupied Smith’s fullbacks. Smith eventually tasked central midfielders Brandt Bronico and Lee Westwood to track NYCFC’s attackers as they dropped wide, but that just opened up Jansen’s midfield pair of Aidan O’Neill or Kai Trewin to receive from the backline with room to turn upfield.

That recipe progressed the Pigeons into the final third with regularity, but the end product was more quantity than quality once they got there. New York City’s 22 shots are the 2nd-largest total under Pascal Jansen, but Smith’s compact and disciplined defensive shape limited those shots to less dangerous positions. At 0.075 xG/shot, NYCFC’s shot quality finished considerably below the league average of 0.124 xG/shot for the past two games.

Jansen’s defense similarly controlled the game during Charlotte’s possession. Like Smith, Jansen kept central defenders Raul Gustavo and Thiago Martins at home as Charlotte’s danger men, Pep Biel and Wilfried Zaha, dropped into midfield. NYCFC diligently rotated their marking to either put left back Kevin O’Toole in pursuit or sag one of Trewin or O’Neill, leaving Westwood unmarked as Charlotte’s deepest-lying midfielder. Slow to turn upfield and vulnerable to back pressure from New York City’s front two, Westwood was enough of a threat that Jansen ultimately dropped Moralez into midfield to deal with these overloads. Jansen deployed this tactic against Vancouver as well, but saw greater success in shutting down the midfield against Charlotte.

New York City dominated defensively in the first half, preventing a single shot from Charlotte. While Charlotte generated only seven shots in the second half, the Pigeons’ first-half supremacy faltered late, and momentary lapses allowed chances from high-quality positions to arise. New York City conceded their highest xG/shot of any game in 2026, two of which decided the game.

Tweaking Moralez’s defensive posture afforded Charlotte’s center backs more time on the ball. Agyemang used that time in the 54th minute to chip a ball toward striker Idan Toklamoti at the halfway line. Biel pulled Trewin up into the midfield overload and left NYCFC out of position for the second ball, easily collected by Zaha. The possession moved wide but quickly came back inside to Zaha, who beat three Pigeons as Toffolo and Toklomati got in behind Ojeda and Gustavo, respectively. Two passes later, and Toklomati, goalside of Gustavo, gave Charlotte the lead.

Zaha was at the center of Charlotte’s second goal too, this time mesmerizing O’Neill and right back Tayvon Gray to neither step to the Ivorian nor track Biel’s run between them. That lapse opened up a simple through ball into the box, and a low cross from Biel reached Kerwin Vargas on the opposite side of the penalty area. The right winger calmly dribbled inside fellow substitute Talles Magno and picked out the side netting.

Jansen’s desperation to chase a goal played a part in the breakdown. Pulling Gustavo left New York City with a single central defender for the final 15 minutes. But this play echoes a 63rd-minute sequence, when the Pigeons still had a full backline, in which Zaha again distracted the NYCFC defense as Toffolo advanced to his left. An early, low cross from Toffolo managed to reach right winger Rodolfo Aloko on the other side for the same cut-in-and-shoot.

Regardless of the circumstances, teams will punish defensive mistakes like these in and around the box when they happen often enough. New York City, 20th in g+ conceded in their own penalty area, is leaving itself exposed for punishment. On the other end, Jansen’s team ranks 23rd in g+ generated in the attacking box and is struggling to create gaps to punish themselves.

Only the Red Bulls have a larger discrepancy between g+ differential inside vs. outside the penalty areas, a reminder that whatever the quality NYCFC shows across the pitch, they capitulate near the goal. Enough ink has been and will continue to be spilled on the teams’ lack of a true center forward, and addressing that roster hole may mitigate half of this problem. But with the winless streak now at four games, Jansen doesn’t have time to wait for a striker to save the day. Nor would that striker resolve the concerns in the other penalty area. ❧

Image: John William Waterhouse, Pandora

With Thiago Martins, New York City Football Club has a defense. Without him, the Vancouver Whitecaps had a field day. The 2-0 road defeat continued a humbling stretch for the Pigeons while serving as a stark reminder of Martins’ impact. New York City concedes 14.9% more expected goals (xG) per 96 minutes without their captain on the pitch.

On-off metrics are not the most reliable statistics in soccer. They’re noisy. The game has too many variables to distill a player’s impact from performance when he is on vs. off the field. Finding a signal in all that noise requires a large sample size, and perhaps a bit of intuition.

In this instance, everyone already knows NYCFC’s defense is significantly better with Martins in central defense. Putting a number on how much better is the hard part. But anyone who watched NYCFC play the Vancouver Whitecaps would feel justified in saying that 14.9% increase underestimates his positive impact.

And if you recalculated that metric after the loss to Vancouver, they would be right. Martins’ xGA on/off statistic jumped all the way up to 20.7% – remember that thing we said about sample size?– after manager Jesper Sørensen’s attack curbstomped Pascal Jansen’s defense to the tune of 3.36 xG in his absence. The designated player (DP) center back missed the game with a leg injury, and the ensuing defensive performance will go down in the annals of NYCFC history as the 7th-worst all-time by conceded xG.

The Whitecaps’ attacking rotations ultimately proved too much for the Pigeons to handle. With New York City fullbacks Kevin O’Toole and Tayvon Gray occupied by Vancouver’s wide attackers, usually left winger Cheikh Sabaly and right back Édier Ocampo, defensive midfielder Aidan O’Neill, and the central defense partnership of Kai Trewin and Raul Gustavo were supposed to shield the middle. Emphasis on the supposed to.

Midfielder Jeevan Badwal pushed up into the frontline and brought O’Neill along with him, regularly turning Jansen’s intended 4-1-3-2 high block into a 5-oh my god no one is in midfield-3-2 defensive shape. Trewin and Gustavo had inklings to track the Whitecaps’ attacking duo of Thomas Müller and Brian White between the lines, but made a habit of dropping off upon the first pass that broke pressure.

With space in between the lines ripe for the taking, Vancouver confused New York City’s marking further by rotating attackers left to right, up and down, and vice versa. Jansen ultimately dropped Maxi Moralez out of the defensive front two and sat him alongside Keaton Parks, making it more difficult for the Whitecaps to play into their defensive midfield combination of Sebastian Berhalter and Andrés Cubas. That tactical tweak, along with a renewed pressing aggression coming out of halftime, gave the Pigeons their steadiest 20 minutes of the game.

However, Sørensen nullified any prospect of a return to respectability when he brought on wingers Emmanuel Sabbi and Bruno Caicedo in the 64th minute. Fresh pace on the flanks gave NYCFC a new danger to worry about. Defensive lapses are rare for Gray, but Caicedo found space behind and beat him on a cutback before crossing in for White’s 87th-minute goal after setting it up with a dribble to the endline on the possession prior.

White scoring the goal that secured the Whitecaps’ victory is poetic justice. The primary antagonist to New York City’s defense all game, he also earned the foul that led to Laborda’s set-piece goal from Sebastian Berhalter’s delivery right before halftime. The American striker generated 12 shots and a breathtaking 2.22 xG, far and away more than any other player against NYC in a single game and 8th-most in the history of the American Soccer Analysis database1. Despite the nuance of Sørensen’s attack, White didn’t need much finesse to exploit the New York City central defense. Bludgeoning them worked just fine, and White had his way in 1v1s, particularly picking on Trewin throughout the game.

Having Martins on the field would not have been enough to turn this game into a good defensive performance, but it’s fair to say he would have handled these critical 1v1s with White better. Martins leads all Major League Soccer center backs in cumulative goals subtracted (g-), a methodology that allocates team goals added (g+) to individuals, since he joined the team in 2022 and is 5th in defensive net g+. He cleans up messes in the back and gives his team a puncher’s chance even when the defense struggles.

Luckily, Jansen still had goalkeeper Matt Freese on the pitch, and he’s another one of those guys who can singlehandedly keep New York City in a game. Freese did so again vs. Vancouver, making 8 saves to keep it a one-goal game until White finally had enough. Even the best security blankets are permeable when battered like Freese was, and clean strikes from within 5 yards of goal will make shrapnel of any keeper.

Preventative medicine is the best medicine after all, and this game is a reminder of the obvious — NYCFC are way better at preventing chances with their captain shepherding the backline. We may just have been underestimating Martins’ impact. For a player whose DP contract designation often gets more discussion than his defense, New York City is lucky to have him at any price. ❧

Image: Joseph Mallard William Turner, Whalers

Soccer managers are contractually obligated to tighten up and switch to conservative tactics when protecting a one-goal lead late in games. It’s a tale as old as time. A team enters the last 15-20 minutes of the match up a goal, and you can see eleven sets of buttcheeks clench in real time. Here comes the bunker, and hold on for dear life.

New York City Football Club puckered against St. Louis City and was punished for it. Substitutes Lukas MacNaughton and Brendan McSorley combined for an equalizer six minutes into stoppage time, spoiling a Hannes Wolf goal that had given the Pigeons the lead in the 50th minute. NYCFC’s defensive block continued to recede towards the goal, so MacNaughton received little pressure on the edge of the final third when he sent an in-swinging ball to the near post. McSorley headed it past keeper Matt Freese to seal the 1-1 draw and steal a point on the road.

St. Louis’ goal culminated a tumultuous final stretch for New York City, with the visitors generating 7 of their 14 shots and 58% of their 1.20 expected goals (xG) in the final thirty minutes of the match. This is the second time early in 2026 that NYCFC conceded late, nursing a one-goal lead. Tayvon Gray bailed them out the first time with his 99th-minute winner vs. Philadelphia, but the bunker keeps springing leaks.

Six games isn’t the most reliable sample, especially when that data is split into 10-minute chunks, but approximately 20% of New York City’s xG conceded in 2026 occurred after the 85th minute. That stretch was also the Pigeons’ worst 10-minute increment in head coach Pascal Jansen’s first season, though xG is generated at a higher rate league-wide from the 86th minute onward, so the 2025 number tracks with the norm.

Nevertheless, the chaotic nature of the final minutes vs. St. Louis illustrates the risks of adopting a defensive shell rather than continuing the style of play that got you the lead in the first place. New York City controlled 58% of possession throughout the game but struggled to retain it late in the game. Whether it was a conscious decision to let St. Louis City head coach Yoann Damet’s team control possession or an inability to withstand their increased pressure, Jansen did what all managers do. He clenched.

With the score 0-0, Jansen’s team built up through St. Louis’ 4-4-2 mid-block with composure. Former NYCFC academy product Dante Polvara and fellow central defender Timo Baumgartl were indecisive on how aggressive to track Maxi Moralez and Nico Fernández Mercau upfield, even after Damet’s halftime switch to a 5-4-1 defensive shape to give an extra man in the backline. The savvy attacking front two for New York City’s savvy front-two exploited that hesitation, finding pockets in between the lines with regularity. Their ability to get on the ball with space to turn gave St. Louis fits throughout the first half and was influential in New York City’s goal. Wolf, Moralez, and Fernández overloaded Polvara while St. Louis’ other center backs failed to step into midfield in support. As soon as Wolf received from Parks, a quick rush towards goal and a 1-2 between Wolf and Moralez eliminated Polvara, sending the Austrian into the box to slip it past keeper Roman Burki.

But New York City’s 66/34 passing advantage in an even game state evaporated to a 47/53 split after the opening goal. By the time McSorley scored, the team looked different, in approach and in personnel. Jansen revamped his backline by bringing on two defenders in Raul Gustavo (76’) and Nico Cavallo (89’), and testing Kai Trewin out at right back. Upon Cavallo’s introduction, another defender, Kevin O’Toole, moved into an unfamiliar midfield role to pair with Jonny Shore, who previously substituted on for Keaton Parks.

Rather than settling into possession, NYCFC regularly cleared to the halfway line, where St. Louis reclaimed the ball and reinitiated their attack. The average length of NYCFC possession chains cratered from 10.7 passing/shooting actions pre-goal to 5.8 afterward. Even for average clenching standards, the Pigeons have adjusted their game more than most when leading by a goal.

Possession chain length can serve as a proxy for the approach to possession (or resilience in maintaining it), with its value during even game states serving as a baseline to control for default play styles. The league-wide average length of possession chains decreased by 14.9% relative to baseline in 2025 when up a goal.

The Pigeons exhibit one of the largest decreases in this metric under Jansen. The average New York City possession is 32.6% shorter (i.e., fewer passing/shooting actions) in 2026, the 8th-largest decrease in Major League Soccer, when leading by one. That continues a trend from 2025, when Jansen’s team ranked 6th in the league in this category at 24.3%.

Continuing this trend against St. Louis is on brand but not necessarily to blame for the result. The other side of the coin with a bunker scheme is that it usually offers ample opportunities to counter when the opponent pushes for an equalizer. That was the case vs. St. Louis, with the visitors sending numbers forward so much that Fernández dribbled in on goal from the halfway line at one point. But NYCFC could not find the goal that would have put the game out of reach despite 5 shots and 0.69 xG from the 86th minute onward.

New York City created just as many chances as St. Louis in the final ten minutes of the game. Still, by forfeiting possession, they left themselves exposed to random variations of finishing. McSorley’s late goal leaves a sour taste after NYCFC looked comfortable for the majority of the match. It stings more because St. Louis doesn’t deserve nice things until they cut it out with this silly “CITY” capitalization. Jansen is a tactical chameleon, and altering his approach when he’s holding a lead is true to style. But against St. Louis City, it bit him. ❧

Image: Edward Hopper, Automat

An Argentine short king was always going to define the match between New York City Football Club and Inter Miami. For one half, it wasn’t the ones everyone expected. Nico Fernández Mercau became the headline, bending a free kick into the top corner that will be one of the best you will see this season. Then, Maxi Moralez and Agustín Ojeda made their mark, connecting on a transition through ball down the heart of Miami’s defense for a goal to put the Pigeons ahead. But for every moment of magic from Fernández Mercau and Moralez, Lionel Messi always had a reminder that he is the king of short kings.

Messi immediately responded to Ojeda’s goal with a free kick that deflected past keeper Matt Freese to tip the momentum back in Miami’s favor on their way to a 3-2 road victory. It was miraculous that he didn’t do more damage: nine shots, four on goal, another two off the woodwork. The lone player singlehandedly capable of opening up the upper decks at Yankee Stadium, the only thing that Messi attracts more than defenders is attention. His greatness is so regular that there is little point in dwelling on it.

That Messi dominated and NYCFC struggled to stop him is not the story. Head coach Pascal Jansen’s decision not to deploy a man-marker, as he had with center back Kai Trewin against Colorado’s attacking midfielder, defined the match for the Pigeons. Maybe Jansen thinks Paxton Aaronson warrants man-marking more than the greatest of all time? Probably not.

It’s plausible Jansen concluded that man marking someone casually strolling around the field like a retiree enjoying the birds, oftentimes 10 yards offside, isn’t exactly intuitive. But Messi’s “if I don’t move, maybe they won’t see me” approach lulled New York City defenders to sleep as he drifted into pockets, the tide of the game ebbing and flowing around him. Quick combinations set what was immobile into motion. By then, it’s too late, and the backline is wondering how the sweet old man strolling through the park acquired a weapon and is now sprinting at them with it.

Miami didn’t even need Messi dropping into midfield from his false nine role to establish control. A casual 2-minute passing sequence at the start of the game took the bite out of the Pigeons’ ability to high press with barely a touch from Messi. Tadeo Allende and Mateo Silvetti sat wide in possession, held the backline high, opening central space and making Miami’s buildup look effortless. That ease of possession culminated in a Gonzalo Lujan second-phase corner goal, forcing Jansen to adopt a more conservative mid-block defensive shape.

While Jansen chose not to man-mark his opponent’s diminutive Argentine attacker, Javier Mascherano (or the lieutenant he was puppeteering) did. Twice over. Fernández Mercau and Moralez again operated as NYCFC’s front two, and Miami central defenders Micael and Lujan never let them feel lonely. The always-savvy Moralez tested the limits of their marking, seeking out space deep and wide where he could run point. Fernández Mercau mimicked his Argentine elder, and both were able to get on the ball despite Miami’s man-marking attempts, ranking 4th and 6th, respectively, in touch percentage within their position this week. Successful progressions from the back often featured attackers dropping in to receive directly from the backline. But Mascherano’s man-marking tactic kept breaking those chains before they could reach the final third, and NYCFC’s buildup couldn’t sustain without Fernández Mercau and Moralez in the same way that Miami’s could without Messi.

Aidan O’Neill and Keaton Parks rarely supplemented buildups through the midfield as New York City struggled to build up through the 4-4-2 pressing shape, even with Messi merely existing as a traffic cone. Through five games, NYCFC central and defensive midfielders rank 28th among 30 MLS teams in passing goals added (g+), according to American Soccer Analysis, highlighting the fact that only two MLS teams have gotten less from the middle of the field.

Despite ranking 5th in possession for the season, NYCFC continued to struggle controlling the game with the ball when not buoyed by man advantages. That red card trend should have continued in the 76th minute when Miami keeper Dayne St. Clair handled a Moralez ball over the top outside the box. Miraculously, in a stadium full of cameras, none captured a conclusive angle that would warrant a review of the non-call. St. Clair’s blunder should have put the Pigeons a man up and in control of the ball to put their gamechangers in position to do something special yet again. Instead, the Pigeons continued to possess at the 44% rate they maintained all game, despite trailing for the final 20 minutes after Micael’s second-phase corner kick goal.

The Outfield’s Justin Egan asked Jansen after the match whether he was concerned his team had lost the possession battle for the second consecutive home match. He responded with an emphatic “not at all”, nothing more. But Jansen’s 76th-minute substitution of Parks for Jonny Shore is an admission that the midfield needed work. For all of Parks’ threatening activity as a pseudo-striker, his impact will need to be felt in the center of the pitch to get back to their ball-dominating ways.

The defending MLS Cup champions provided the best bellwether for NYC early in 2026. This match confirmed the Pigeons are a second-tier contender in the Eastern Conference, but it showed that their Argentine short kings can keep them in games against anyone in MLS. While they may not be Messi, Fernández Mercau and Moralez have accounted for 10 of the team’s 19 goal contributions and 42.3% of their expected goals and assists. They are more than capable of moments of magic to compensate as the buildup finds its footing, and of dragging their team back into battles like this. It just wasn’t enough against Messi on this day. ❧

Image: Benjamin Robert Haydon, Napoléon Bonaparte (‘Napoléon on St Helena’)